--- title: "The 2050 Server · a universe that takes 1.8 × 10²⁴ FLOPS · Simulation Hypothesis" url: https://simulation-hypothesis.com/builds/server-2050 description: "Everyone on Earth, with only as many real minds as 2050’s computers can run." license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ credit: "Ross Allan Dahl, Simulation Hypothesis (simulation-hypothesis.com)" --- [Scenarios](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/builds)4/9 # The 2050 Server · Everyone on Earth, with only as many real minds as 2050’s computers can run. Open in the sandbox ▸ A present-day Earth running on every computer humanity is on track to have in 2050, pooled into one machine. That’s enough for about 1.8 million real minds. The other 8.2 billion people are scripted, and you can’t tell which you are from the inside. Your odds of being one of the real minds are about 1 in 4,523. Required computing power rough 1.8 × 10^24 FLOPS Our computers could run this between 2046 and 2055, if steady growth runs a fifth faster or slower (2050 at the central rate). [The countdown ▸](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/countdown) All the chips humanity has ever made would be a small fraction of this. Computer sizerough 1,800 × every computer on Earth Servers, personal computers, phones and consoles added together. Feasibility Beyond all existing hardware More than every computer on Earth combined. Universe-computerstextbook 2.2 × 10^-80 One universe-computer is every kilogram in the observable universe computing at Lloyd’s bound. Power draw, Landauer floortextbook 5.2 kW The thermodynamic minimum for flipping bits at room temperature. The best real hardware uses about five billion times more energy than that. At the thermodynamic minimum, a wall socket would do. On every computer on Earthrough under a year per second How long it takes, on a clock, to compute one second of simulation on all of humanity’s computers, \~10^21 FLOPS. A few months of all Earth’s computing for every simulated second. World actually computedwild guess 3.0 × 10^-10% 3.0 × 10^-10% of the mass is watched by 1.8 million observers. The observation dial sets how much of the remainder is computed at the full floor. ## Questions this scenario asks * If you met a real mind, how would you know? * Do we owe a scripted character the same care as a real mind? * Who decides which few million minds are real? * If you’re scripted, whose thoughts are these? “Worked out a world of full minds among painted surfaces: 1.8 × 10^24 FLOPS.” ## Report card Instance report PAINTED SURFACES, FULL MINDS Settings Scale Earth Matter floor Painted set Lobby Real and scripted minds Inner lives 8.2 billion · functional Computed 3.0 × 10^-10% Time Linear, live from 1996 Computing needed 1.8 × 10^24 FLOPS Computer size 1,800 × every computer on Earth Universe-computers 2.2 × 10^-80 Feasibility Beyond all existing hardware Judged, not measured The author’s reading. None of these changes the computing total. Suffering As found Free will Genuinely free Utilitarian divided Deontological divided Virtue ethics leans for Existentialist leans for “Worked out a world of full minds among painted surfaces: 1.8 × 10^24 FLOPS.” Two of these are rough and three are wild guesses, and each is tagged that way. Change any one dial and you get a different universe. Matter computingrough 1.8 × 10^19 FLOPS Only surfaces are computed, and only where someone is looking. Anything unobserved is just a stored value. Mind computingrough 1.8 × 10^24 FLOPS Sandberg & Bostrom 2008, level 4 1.8 million fully computed functional minds and 8.2 billion scripted ones. Your odds of being fully computed are about 1 in 4,523. Inner liveswild guess 8.2 billion 1.8 million real minds, 8.2 billion scripted, 4.5 × 10^20 animals as scenery. Operations so farrough 1.7 × 10^33 30 years on the clock, at 1.8 × 10^24 per second. History that is only storedrough 99.9999998% Computing begins in 1996\. 5.77 billion humans are present at the start, with preinstalled memories. [◂ Solipsism](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/builds/solipsism)Open in the sandbox ▸ [Local Universe ▸](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/builds/local)