--- title: "Ƙirgen lokaci · Yaushe kwamfutocinmu za su iya tafiyar da kowane kwaikwayo? · Hasashen Kwaikwayo" url: https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/countdown description: "Lissafin bil’adama, an auna tun 1946 kuma an yi hasashe a yanayi uku da ke daidaitawa a rufin zahiri, a kan lissafin da kowane yanayin filin gwaji ke buƙata." license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ credit: "Ross Allan Dahl, Hasashen Kwaikwayo (simulation-hypothesis.com)" --- # Ƙirgen lokaci · lokacin da kwamfutocinmu za su iya tafiyar da kowane kwaikwayo Kowane yanayi a [filin gwaji](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/sandbox) yana buƙatar wasu ayyuka a daƙiƙa. Kwamfutocin bil’adama suna taruwa a jimilla. Wannan shafi yana sanya biyun a zane ɗaya. Muna auna zuwa yanzu, sannan mu yi hasashen yanayi uku da ke daidaitawa yayin da suka kai iyakokin zahiri. Misali ne da aka gina a kan bayanan da aka auna, ba hasashe ba. Yanayi ukun namu ne, kuma kowace shekara da ke ƙasa tana nufin “idan ƙaruwar ta tsaya a wannan gudu”. Bil’adama yana lissafi kusan 10^21 ayyuka a daƙiƙa, duk kayan aikin duniya kimanta kawai Layin ƙarshe na gaba \~2050 Sabar 2050, 1.8 × 10^24, idan ƙaruwar ta tsaya daidai zato kawai Duniya, zarra bayan zarra 1.3 × 10^47 × fiye da kowane lissafi da ke akwai kimanta kawai Chips a kan ƙasa 4.7 × 10^9 × mafi kyawun kayan aikin yau, sama da iyakar Landauer na littafi ## Ketarewa Layuka marasa yankewa an auna su. Layuka masu zari-zari yanayi uku ne. Kowanne yana ƙaruwa a gudu daidai yayin da yake nesa da rufinsa, sannan ya daidaita yayin da ya kusa, kamar ƙaruwar logistic. Kowane ɓangare yana nuna yanayi iri ɗaya da ƙaruwa ƙasa da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar da sama da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar. Wannan yaɗuwa na son rai ne. Ba ƙimar yiwuwa ba ce. Inda layin zari-zari ya ketare layin ƙarshe, wannan ita ce shekarar da kwamfutocinmu za su iya tafiyar da shi, idan wayewa ta jefa cikakken ƙarfinta cikin aikin. Yanayin da ke wuce wutar lantarkin yau kuma suna ɗauka ƙarfi ga kowane aiki yana ci gaba da raguwa zuwa ƙasan zafi. Mafi kyawun chips da ƙyar suka inganta tun 2022, don haka wannan shi ne zato mafi rauni a shafin. Ƙaruwa: 35% a shekara Har zuwaDuk wutar lantarkin Duniya, chips na yau1% na hasken Duniya, chips cikakkuDuk Rana, chips cikakkuNauyin Duniya a matsayin kwamfuta ta ƙololuwa Mafi saurin inji ɗaya Duk kwamfutocin bil’adama Da sauri Tsayayye Ya tsaya Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Mafi saurin inji ɗaya | Duk kwamfutocin bil’adama | Da sauri | Tsayayye | Ya tsaya | | ------- | --------------------- | ------------------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | | 1946 | 5.0 × 10² FLOPS | | | | | | 1964 | 3.0 × 10⁶ FLOPS | | | | | | 1976 | 1.6 × 10⁸ FLOPS | | | | | | 1986 | | 3.0 × 10¹⁴ FLOPS | | | | | 1993 | 6.0 × 10¹⁰ FLOPS | 4.4 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS | | | | | 1997 | 1.3 × 10¹² FLOPS | | | | | | 2000 | | 2.9 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS | | | | | 2002 | 3.6 × 10¹³ FLOPS | | | | | | 2007 | | 6.4 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | | | | 2008 | 1.1 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS | | | | | | 2011 | 1.1 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS | | | | | | 2013 | 3.4 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS | | | | | | 2016 | 9.3 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS | | | | | | 2018 | 1.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS | | | | | | 2020 | 4.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS | | | | | | 2022 | 1.1 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | | | | | 2024 | 1.7 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | | | | | 2025 | | 10²¹ FLOPS | 10²¹ FLOPS | 10²¹ FLOPS | 10²¹ FLOPS | | 2026 | 2.2 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | | | | | 2050 | | | 1.3 × 10²⁶ FLOPS | 1.8 × 10²⁴ FLOPS | 7.0 × 10²² FLOPS | | 2075 | | | 1.6 × 10³¹ FLOPS | 3.3 × 10²⁷ FLOPS | 2.5 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2100 | | | 2.0 × 10³⁶ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁰ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2125 | | | 2.6 × 10⁴¹ FLOPS | 1.1 × 10³⁴ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2150 | | | 2.6 × 10⁴⁶ FLOPS | 5.8 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2175 | | | 1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2200 | | | 1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2225 | | | 1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2250 | | | 1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2275 | | | 1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | | 2300 | | | 1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS | 6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS | 2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS | * **Da sauri.** Ƙarin lissafi 60% kowace shekara, gudun 1990s, har sai wata wayewa a bayan Duniya ta yi amfani da abin da Rana ke fitarwa. zato kawai * **Tsayayye.** 35% a shekara, kusan shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, har sai kayan aiki sun kai ƙasan zafi kuma ɗan ƙaramin ɓangare na hasken Duniya ya tafi lissafi. zato kawai * **Ya tsaya.** 20% a shekara ba tare da sabuwar hanyar samar da ƙarfi ba. Lissafi yana ƙaruwa har sai ya yi amfani da duk wutar lantarki a ingancin yau. zato kawai | Layin ƙarshe | Lissafin da ake buƙata | Da sauri | Tsayayye | Ya tsaya | | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------- | --------------- | --------------- | --------------- | | [Kwakwalwa a Cikin Tulu](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/vat)Ainihin kwakwalwa a ainihin gaskiya. Duniyarta kawai aka lissafa, sauran kowa na rubutu. | 8.2 × 10^15 | tuni | tuni | tuni | | [Solipsism](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/solipsism)Hankali ɗaya na gaske. Duniya tana da cikakken bayani gwargwadon abin da wannan hankali zai iya gwadawa kawai. | 10^18 | tuni | tuni | tuni | | [Rayuwa Bayan Mutuwa](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/afterlife)Duniya babu wahala, ana lissafa ta kawai idan wani yana nan. | 10^18 | tuni | tuni | tuni | | [Sabar 2050](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/server-2050)Kowa a duniya, da hankula na gaske kawai gwargwadon abin da kwamfutocin 2050 za su iya tafiyarwa. | 1.8 × 10^24 | 2039–2044 | 2046–2055 | ba za a taɓa ba | | Kowane mai rai, a matsayin hankulaHankula biliyan takwas, suna aiki a matakin aiki, kuma babu muhallin da aka kwaikwaya. | 8.2 × 10^27 | 2054–2066 | 2070–2089 | ba za a taɓa ba | | [Matrix](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/sleepers)Duniya ta yau da biliyoyin cikakkun hankula da aka lissafa, ana zanawa kawai a inda wani yake kallo. | 8.2 × 10^31 | 2071–2089 | 2097–2127 | ba za a taɓa ba | | [Duniya, zarra bayan zarra, tun 1900](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/custom)Duniya zarra bayan zarra tun 1900, a matsayin wurin farawa don canja maɓalli ɗaya a lokaci guda. | 1.3 × 10^68 | ba za a taɓa ba | ba za a taɓa ba | ba za a taɓa ba | | [Sararin Samaniya na Kusa](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/local)Milky Way a ƙudurin zarra, daga Fashewar Farko. | 7.0 × 10^85 | ba za a taɓa ba | ba za a taɓa ba | ba za a taɓa ba | | [Sararin Samaniya Mai Sauƙi](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/builds/lite)Sararin samaniyar da ake iya gani a ƙudurin ƙwayar zarra ta halitta, an bar rabinsa. | 5.8 × 10^91 | ba za a taɓa ba | ba za a taɓa ba | ba za a taɓa ba | A ƙarfin tauraro ɗaya, da dabarar lissafi ta yau da kullum da ke goge bit a kowane aiki a yanayin ɗaki, ba za mu taɓa samun isasshen lissafi don tafiyar da cikakkiyar duniya ba. Lissafi mai juyawa da wurin sanyaya mai sanyi zai rage wannan ƙasa. Ba ma ƙirga su a nan. Bayan layin Rana, hanya ɗaya tilo ta samun isasshe ita ce juya abu kansa ya zama kwamfuta kusa da iyakar Lloyd. Wannan iyakar rufi ce ga abu mai zafi kamar plasma, ba ga wani abu kamar dutse ba. Ga ayyukan kawai, Duniya zarra bayan zarra tana buƙatar aƙalla 2.5 × 10^17 kg. Wannan ya fi Duniya ƙanƙanta sau miliyan 24\. Adana yanayinta yana buƙatar aƙalla bits 5 × 10^52, kuma hakan yana buƙatar abu da yawa fiye da haka (fiye da 10^18 kg ko a iyakar black-hole). Hujjar Bostrom tana ɗauka wayewar bayan-ɗan-Adam da za su iya gina kwamfutoci irin haka. Shi ya sa tana game da su ba mu ba. ## Abubuwan da ke tuƙa ƙaruwa ## Injuna Mafi saurin inji ɗaya Duk kwamfutocin duniya Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Mafi saurin inji ɗaya | Duk kwamfutocin duniya | | ------- | --------------------- | ---------------------- | | 1946 | 5.0 × 10² FLOPS | | | 1964 | 3.0 × 10⁶ FLOPS | | | 1976 | 1.6 × 10⁸ FLOPS | | | 1986 | | 3.0 × 10¹⁴ FLOPS | | 1993 | 6.0 × 10¹⁰ FLOPS | 4.4 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS | | 1997 | 1.3 × 10¹² FLOPS | | | 2000 | | 2.9 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS | | 2002 | 3.6 × 10¹³ FLOPS | | | 2007 | | 6.4 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | 2008 | 1.1 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS | | | 2011 | 1.1 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS | | | 2013 | 3.4 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS | | | 2016 | 9.3 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS | | | 2018 | 1.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS | | | 2020 | 4.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS | | | 2022 | 1.1 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | | 2024 | 1.7 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | | 2025 | | 10²¹ FLOPS | | 2026 | 2.2 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS | | Shekaru saba’in da tara, matakan girma goma sha biyar: kusan ninki dubu ɗaya kowace shekaru goma sha biyar. an auna Tushe: jerin TOP500 sau biyu a shekara (an auna a kan Linpack benchmark) daga 1993, na baya-bayan nan Yuni 2026; lambobin mafi girma daga tarihin injuna kafin hakan, kuma na 1946 kimanta ne. Kowane processor, an haɗa su. Ba a maimaita ƙidayar 2011 ba, don haka ɓangaren ƙarshe layi madaidaici ne zuwa anka na kimanta. Yana ƙirga umarni na gama-gari, kamar yadda ƙidayar ta yi. Chips na AI kaɗai sun kai kusan ayyuka 4 × 10^21 a ƙaramin daidaito a daƙiƙa a ƙarshen 2024; waɗannan raka’a ce mafi ƙanƙanta, kuma ƙara su zai ɗaga jimilla da kusan ninki biyar kuma ya kawo kowane ketarewa na ƙaruwa daidai gaba da kusan shekaru biyar. kimanta kawai Tushe: Hilbert & López, “The World’s Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information”, Science 332 (2011), suna ƙirga umarni ɗaya a matsayin aiki ɗaya; ma’aunin 2025 anka ne na matakin girma na shafin kansa. ## Ƙarfi ga kowane aiki Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Ƙarfi ga kowane aiki, mafi kyawun inji | | ------- | -------------------------------------- | | 1946 | 3.0 × 10² J | | 1964 | 10⁻² J | | 1976 | 7.0 × 10⁻⁴ J | | 2008 | 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ J | | 2012 | 4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ J | | 2016 | 1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ J | | 2020 | 3.8 × 10⁻¹¹ J | | 2022 | 1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ J | | 2024 | 1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ J | | 2025 | 1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ J | Joules da ake kashewa ga kowane aiki ya faɗi da ninki tiriliyan ashirin. Jan layi shi ne ƙasan da kimiyyar lissafi ta ba da dama a yanayin ɗaki; mafi kyawun chips har yanzu suna sama da shi sau kusan Biliyan 5\. an auna Tushe: jerin Green500 na manyan kwamfutoci masu inganci a ƙarfi daga 2008 (jerin Nuwamba, har zuwa ayyuka biliyan 73.3 ga kowane watt a 2025); kusan ƙarfi da gudu daga tarihin injuna kafin hakan. Koomey et al. (2011) sun auna ninki a kowace shekaru 1.57 daga 1946 zuwa 2009. ## Transistors a chip ɗaya Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Transistors a chip ɗaya | | ------- | ----------------------- | | 1971 | 2.3 × 10³ | | 1978 | 2.9 × 10⁴ | | 1985 | 2.8 × 10⁵ | | 1989 | 1.2 × 10⁶ | | 1993 | 3.1 × 10⁶ | | 2000 | 4.2 × 10⁷ | | 2010 | 3.0 × 10⁹ | | 2016 | 1.5 × 10¹⁰ | | 2020 | 5.4 × 10¹⁰ | | 2022 | 8.0 × 10¹⁰ | | 2024 | 2.1 × 10¹¹ | Ninkin Moore na 1965, har yanzu kusan a kan lokaci, yanzu ta hanyar haɗa dies biyu a fakiti ɗaya. Chips da aka yi daga cikakken wafer sun kai tiriliyan huɗu a 2024; an bar su domin ba daidai ake kwatantawa ba. an auna Tushe: ƙidayar masu ƙera da aka buga don mafi girman chip ko fakiti na kowace shekara. ## Mafi girman horon AI Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Mafi girman horon AI | | ------- | -------------------- | | 2012 | ayyuka 6.0 × 10¹⁷ | | 2015 | ayyuka 4.0 × 10²⁰ | | 2017 | ayyuka 8.0 × 10²⁰ | | 2020 | ayyuka 3.0 × 10²³ | | 2022 | ayyuka 3.0 × 10²⁴ | | 2023 | ayyuka 2.0 × 10²⁵ | | 2024 | ayyuka 4.0 × 10²⁵ | | 2025 | ayyuka 4.0 × 10²⁶ | | 2026 | ayyuka 10²⁷ | Jimillar ayyukan da aka kashe a babbar horarwa ta kowace shekara, tana ƙaruwa sau huɗu zuwa biyar a shekara tun 2010\. Layuka masu launin toka jimillar iri ɗaya ce da aka ƙirga a shekarun kwakwalwar ɗan Adam ɗaya a ƙimar aiki: rikodin 2025 kusan shekarun kwakwalwa dozin ɗaya ne. kimanta kawai Tushe: Bayanan Epoch AI kan manyan samfuran AI (kiyasi, an zagaye zuwa lamba ɗaya; 2026 na farko ne); ƙimar ƙaruwa daga Sevilla da Roldán (2024). ## Algorithms Gane hoto 44 × ƙarancin lissafi don sakamako ɗaya, 2012 zuwa 2019 an auna Samfuran harshe ½ lissafin don sakamako ɗaya, kusan kowane watanni 8 kimanta kawai Kayan aiki wani ɓangare ne kawai na yanayin. Mafi kyawun algorithms suna rage ayyukan da aiki ke buƙata kowace shekara, don haka yanayin da ke sama na iya zama ƙasa da ainihin ƙaruwa. Tushe: Hernandez & Brown (2020); Ho et al. (2024). ## Wutar lantarki ga cibiyoyin bayanai Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Wutar lantarkin cibiyar bayanai | Wutar lantarkin cibiyar bayanai, an yi hasashe | | ------- | ------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------- | | 2010 | 194 TWh | | | 2015 | 200 TWh | | | 2018 | 205 TWh | | | 2020 | 270 TWh | | | 2024 | 415 TWh | | | 2025 | 485 TWh | 485 TWh | | 2030 | | 945 TWh | Terawatt-hours a shekara. Tsayayye na shekaru goma yayin da chips suka inganta, sannan AI ya lanƙwasa shi sama; ɓangaren zari-zari shi ne tushen hukumar. Duk duniya ta yi amfani da kusan terawatt-hours 29,000 a 2024\. kimanta kawai Tushe: Masanet et al., Science 367 (2020), na 2010 zuwa 2018; International Energy Agency, “Energy and AI” (2025), na 2020 zuwa gaba da hasashen 2030. ## Kwakwalwa, an zana taswirarsu kuma an gudanar da su An zana taswira, kowace synapse An kwaikwaya, an sauƙaƙa Nuna lambobin | Shekara | An zana taswira, kowace synapse | An kwaikwaya, an sauƙaƙa | | ------- | ------------------------------- | ------------------------ | | 1986 | jijiyoyi 3.0 × 10² | | | 2013 | | jijiyoyi 1.7 × 10⁹ | | 2023 | jijiyoyi 3.0 × 10³ | | | 2024 | jijiyoyi 1.4 × 10⁵ | jijiyoyi 8.6 × 10¹⁰ | An zana taswira yana nufin kowace jijiya da synapse an bi ta daga ainihin nama: tsutsa, tsutsar kwari, kuda. Kwaikwayo auna ce daban: jijiyoyin samfuri biliyan 1.7 a 2013, kuma a 2024 gudu da raka’o’i masu yawa kamar kwakwalwar ɗan Adam, kowanne an sauƙaƙa zuwa ɗigo da zaton wayoyi. Layin sama kwakwalwar ɗan Adam ɗaya ce. Milimita cubic na ɗan Adam da bera (2024, 2025) ma an zana taswirarsu, amma gutsure ne, ba cikakkun kwakwalwa ba. an auna Tushe: White et al. (1986), tsutsa; Winding et al. (2023), tsutsar kuda; Dorkenwald et al. (2024), kuda babba. RIKEN da Jülich (2013) don gudun kwamfutar K; Fudan University (2024) don gudun girman ɗan Adam. ## Abun ciki da inji ya samar ## Kason sababbin abubuwa da inji ya yi Babu wanda ya auna wannan ga duniya gaba ɗaya. Akwai jerin lokaci na gaske ɗaya, daga sabis ɗin kiɗa ɗaya da ke ƙirga abin da ake lodawa. Akwai kuma ƙidayoyi ɗaiɗai kaɗan, kowanne don nau’in abu ɗaya a wuri ɗaya. Ka ɗauke su a matsayin samfura. Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Kason sababbin lodin kiɗa da inji ya yi gaba ɗaya | | -------- | ------------------------------------------------- | | Jan 2025 | 10% | | Yun 2025 | 18% | | Sat 2025 | 28% | | Nuw 2025 | 34% | | Jan 2026 | 39% | | Afi 2026 | 44% | | Yul 2026 | 50% | Kashi na sababbin waƙoƙin kowace rana. Ya wuce rabi a Yuli 2026\. Maganar da ake ambata sosai ta “90% na abun cikin yanar gizo zai zama na roba nan da 2026” ba ta da tushen da za a bi, kuma ba a yi amfani da ita a nan ba. kimanta kawai Tushe: mai gano na wani babban sabis na kiɗa, daga sanarwarsa (Janairu 2025 zuwa Yuli 2026). 50% **Sababbin labaran yanar gizo na Turanci da inji ya rubuta galibi** · 2025 kimanta kawai Mai rarraba na kamfanin SEO da aka gudanar a kan samfurin yanar gizo buɗaɗɗe; tsayayye tun farkon 2025. 17% **Sakamakon bincike 20 na sama da aka yi wa alama da inji ya rubuta** · 2025 kimanta kawai Kayan aikin mai sayar da gano, bincike 500 a kan babbar injin bincike; ya kasance 7% a Maris 2024. 15% **Rubuce-rubuce a babban shafin tattaunawa da wataƙila inji ya rubuta** · 2025 kimanta kawai Wannan mai sayarwar ne; 13% shekarar da ta gabata. 3% **Kunna waƙoƙin da inji ya yi gaba ɗaya a sabis ɗin da ke sama** · 2026 kimanta kawai Sabis ɗin kansa: lodi suna ambaliya, sauraro ba ya biyo baya. ## Sha’awa Muna amfani da wakilai biyu na sha’awa. Ɗaya ziyarar labarin ƙamus ne ga kowane ra’ayi (Turanci, zirga-zirgar ɗan Adam kawai). Ɗayan sababbin takardun ilimi ne da ke amfani da kalmar. Kowane zane yana da ma’aunin kansa. Dige-dige marasa cika suna nuna shekarun da ba a kammala ba. Jerin takardun kansa ya girma da sauri a 2025 da 2026, don haka wani ɓangare na hawan ƙarshe aibin ƙirgawa ne, ba ƙaruwar fannin ba. ## Hasashen kwaikwayo · ziyara Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Hasashen kwaikwayo · ziyara | | ------- | --------------------------- | | 2016 | 338,998 | | 2017 | 300,904 | | 2018 | 362,320 | | 2019 | 453,578 | | 2020 | 449,018 | | 2021 | 479,322 | | 2022 | 318,153 | | 2023 | 338,869 | | 2024 | 360,061 | | 2025 | 347,213 | | 2026 | 165,640 | Ziyarar ƙamus a shekara. 2026 yana tafiya zuwa 2026-08. ## Generative AI · ziyara Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Generative AI · ziyara | | ------- | ---------------------- | | 2023 | 561,844 | | 2024 | 949,100 | | 2025 | 939,238 | | 2026 | 294,748 | Ziyarar ƙamus a shekara. 2026 yana tafiya zuwa 2026-08. ## Tagwayen dijital · ziyara Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Tagwayen dijital · ziyara | | ------- | ------------------------- | | 2017 | 51,601 | | 2018 | 163,210 | | 2019 | 224,792 | | 2020 | 241,048 | | 2021 | 270,726 | | 2022 | 257,797 | | 2023 | 204,803 | | 2024 | 276,219 | | 2025 | 176,899 | | 2026 | 83,070 | Ziyarar ƙamus a shekara. 2026 yana tafiya zuwa 2026-08. ## Hasashen kwaikwayo · takardu Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Hasashen kwaikwayo · takardu | | ------- | ---------------------------- | | 2003 | 2 | | 2004 | 2 | | 2005 | 3 | | 2006 | 6 | | 2007 | 8 | | 2008 | 4 | | 2009 | 5 | | 2010 | 5 | | 2011 | 10 | | 2012 | 6 | | 2013 | 11 | | 2014 | 7 | | 2015 | 9 | | 2016 | 12 | | 2017 | 12 | | 2018 | 14 | | 2019 | 22 | | 2020 | 19 | | 2021 | 27 | | 2022 | 17 | | 2023 | 29 | | 2024 | 35 | | 2025 | 92 | | 2026 | 291 | Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “simulation hypothesis” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani. ## Tagwayen dijital · takardu Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Tagwayen dijital · takardu | | ------- | -------------------------- | | 2010 | 4 | | 2011 | 3 | | 2012 | 10 | | 2013 | 5 | | 2014 | 11 | | 2015 | 13 | | 2016 | 43 | | 2017 | 129 | | 2018 | 493 | | 2019 | 1,301 | | 2020 | 2,371 | | 2021 | 4,228 | | 2022 | 6,334 | | 2023 | 9,513 | | 2024 | 13,036 | | 2025 | 22,180 | | 2026 | 32,175 | Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “digital twin” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani. ## Samfuran duniya · takardu Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Samfuran duniya · takardu | | ------- | ------------------------- | | 2000 | 98 | | 2001 | 157 | | 2002 | 288 | | 2003 | 214 | | 2004 | 186 | | 2005 | 227 | | 2006 | 219 | | 2007 | 204 | | 2008 | 206 | | 2009 | 246 | | 2010 | 266 | | 2011 | 264 | | 2012 | 268 | | 2013 | 257 | | 2014 | 265 | | 2015 | 283 | | 2016 | 233 | | 2017 | 266 | | 2018 | 286 | | 2019 | 299 | | 2020 | 357 | | 2021 | 357 | | 2022 | 374 | | 2023 | 533 | | 2024 | 803 | | 2025 | 1,744 | | 2026 | 5,352 | Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “world model” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani. ## AI ya samar · takardu Nuna lambobin | Shekara | AI ya samar · takardu | | ------- | --------------------- | | 2010 | 1 | | 2011 | 3 | | 2012 | 1 | | 2013 | 2 | | 2014 | 1 | | 2015 | 6 | | 2016 | 8 | | 2017 | 6 | | 2018 | 24 | | 2019 | 75 | | 2020 | 140 | | 2021 | 208 | | 2022 | 295 | | 2023 | 1,752 | | 2024 | 4,867 | | 2025 | 13,032 | | 2026 | 22,260 | Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “AI-generated” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani. ## Bayanan roba · takardu Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Bayanan roba · takardu | | ------- | ---------------------- | | 2000 | 250 | | 2001 | 283 | | 2002 | 537 | | 2003 | 524 | | 2004 | 573 | | 2005 | 637 | | 2006 | 850 | | 2007 | 875 | | 2008 | 945 | | 2009 | 1,028 | | 2010 | 1,111 | | 2011 | 1,253 | | 2012 | 1,300 | | 2013 | 1,422 | | 2014 | 1,558 | | 2015 | 1,620 | | 2016 | 1,818 | | 2017 | 2,001 | | 2018 | 2,272 | | 2019 | 2,772 | | 2020 | 3,214 | | 2021 | 3,913 | | 2022 | 4,379 | | 2023 | 5,402 | | 2024 | 7,243 | | 2025 | 10,796 | | 2026 | 12,775 | Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “synthetic data” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani. ## Kwaikwayon kwakwalwa gaba ɗaya · takardu Nuna lambobin | Shekara | Kwaikwayon kwakwalwa gaba ɗaya · takardu | | ------- | ---------------------------------------- | | 2008 | 1 | | 2010 | 1 | | 2011 | 1 | | 2012 | 7 | | 2013 | 5 | | 2014 | 3 | | 2015 | 6 | | 2016 | 2 | | 2017 | 7 | | 2018 | 6 | | 2019 | 4 | | 2020 | 3 | | 2021 | 3 | | 2022 | 7 | | 2023 | 2 | | 2024 | 7 | | 2025 | 13 | | 2026 | 47 | Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “whole brain emulation” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani. ## Imani ## Imani da hasashen kwaikwayo **Babu maimaita awo.** Babu binciken jama’a, ko na kowace sana’a, da ya tambaya ko muna cikin kwaikwayo a shekaru biyu daban-daban. Don haka babu yanayi da za a zana, kuma wannan shafi bai zana ɗaya ba. an auna **Masana falsafa, 2020.** Babban binciken ƙwararrun masana falsafa ba shi da tambaya game da kwaikwayo. Mafi kusa shi ne game da duniyar waje: 79.5% sun zaɓi realism mara shakka, wato tana wanzuwa kuma za mu iya saninta. Kwaikwayo mai kyau zai samu amsa iri ɗaya. an auna **Lambobi marasa tushe.** Lambar “22% na manya” da tsofaffin da’awa game da zaɓen tashar talabijin ana maimaita su da yawa; babu ɗayansu da aka iya gano shi zuwa zaɓe na gaske, don haka ba a yi amfani da ɗaya ba. Zane-zanen sha’awa da ke sama suna tsayawa a matsayin wakilai: neman ra’ayin a bainar jama’a da wallafe-wallafen ilimi a kai. zato kawai ## Yadda ake ƙirga wannan shafi * Yanayi shi ne lanƙwasar logistic da aka rubuta a log10: ƙaruwa _r_ a shekara, tana daidaitawa zuwa rufi _C_. Daga 10^21 a 2025, matakin a shekara _t_ shi ne _C_ − log\_10(1 + (10_C_−21 − 1) · (1 + _r_)−(_t_−2025)). * Kowane rufi ƙarfin wuta ne ya ninka inganci: wutar lantarkin Duniya (kusan 3.5 × 10^12 W) a mafi kyawun na yau 7 × 10^10 FLOPS ga kowane watt; 1% na hasken rana da ke isa Duniya, ko duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa, a iyakar Landauer (1 / 2.87 × 10^−21 ayyuka ga kowane joule); nauyin Duniya a iyakar Lloyd. * Layukan ƙarshe saitunan filin gwaji ne, an auna su da injin iri ɗaya da sauran shafin. [Hanyar aikin](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/method) tana lissafa kowace madaidaiciyar lamba. * Aiki ɗaya, FLOP da bit da aka goge ana ƙirga su a matsayin raka’a ɗaya, kamar a sauran shafin. Wannan yana ƙara girman rufin fiye da kima da ninki na kusan 10^3 zuwa 10^4. Tushe * Jerin TOP500 da Green500 (top500.org), Yuni 1993 zuwa Yuni 2026. * Hilbert & López, Science 332 (2011): lissafin gama-gari na duniya, 1986 zuwa 2007. * Koomey, Berard, Sanchez & Wong, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing (2011): lissafi ga kowace kilowatt-hour. * Epoch AI, bayanai kan manyan samfuran AI; Sevilla et al. (2022), “Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning”; Sevilla & Roldán (2024) kan sau 4 zuwa 5 a shekara. * Hernandez & Brown (2020): lissafi ƙasa da sau 44 don sakamakon gane hoto ɗaya, 2012 zuwa 2019\. Ho et al. (2024): samfuran harshe suna buƙatar rabin lissafi don sakamako ɗaya kusan kowane watanni 8. * Masanet et al., Science 367 (2020); International Energy Agency, “Energy and AI” (2025). * White et al. (1986); Winding et al. (2023); Dorkenwald et al. (2024); Shapson-Coe et al. (2024); MICrONS consortium (2025). * Bourget & Chalmers, binciken PhilPapers na 2020. * An ɗauko bayanan sha’awa 2026-09-28 daga Wikimedia pageviews (Wikipedia na Turanci, zirga-zirgar ɗan Adam) da OpenAlex (binciken kalmar suna da taƙaitaccen bayani). Kwafa hanyar haɗin Ajiye katin Tsarin hanyar haɗi Duk yanayin wannan shafi yana cikin hanyar haɗinsa, don haka mutum, rubutaccen shiri ko wakili zai iya rubuta hanyar haɗi. Sigogi ga `/countdown`: * `g`: ƙaruwar lissafi ta shekara, a kashi. lamba cikakkiya `5` zuwa `100` * `c`: rufin zahiri da ƙaruwar ke daidaitawa a kai. `grid`, `sunlight`, `sun`, `earth-mass` Misali: [https://simulation-hypothesis.com/countdown?g=35&c=sunlight](https://simulation-hypothesis.com/ha/countdown?g=35&c=sunlight). Iri ɗaya ne ga kowane kayan aiki, da buɗaɗɗen bayanan shafin, a .