10 · Our side
Which side of the trilemma?
Bostrom’s argument (2003) goes like this. Say civilisations like ours get to the point where they can run realistic simulations, and some of them do. Then simulated minds vastly outnumber real ones, and you’re almost certainly one of them. So at least one of three things has to be true.
By your numbers, a civilisation like ours could run your reality around 2078. That weighs against the first option. It doesn’t decide between the second and the third.