Bostrom’s trilemma

Bostrom’s trilemma is Nick Bostrom’s 2003 argument that at least one of three propositions is true. This follows if minds can run on any substrate and we have no reason to think we’re special. Either almost all civilisations die out before they can run ancestor simulations, or almost none of the mature ones ever do, or we almost certainly live in one.

The Trilemma window takes the first two probabilities as inputs and gives you the third. It’s just arithmetic on what you put in. It isn’t a verdict.

This is why the site treats your credence as a bet and not a verdict. We don’t ask you to accept a conclusion. We ask which of three options you find least unlikely. The Trilemma window fixes two of the probabilities and works out the third.