Technology tree · how virtual worlds became possible
A virtual world needs two things: a way to fool the senses, and a machine that computes what they should receive. For most of history these developed separately. They meet at the head-mounted display. You can open any node. Lines show what each one built on. Dashed nodes stalled because a prerequisite was missing. Future nodes are published forecasts, each cited. A forecast’s date range covers the sources quoted, and they may define the milestone differently.
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Where it starts
Every node with no line into it is a beginning. These lines started on their own and only later fed into each other. The oldest are , the first rendered worlds, and the , the oldest calculating device whose design survives.
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The whole tree as text · every node in order, for screen readers, text browsers and machine readers. Same nodes as the map
Dates are years of the common era unless marked BC or BCE. Evolutionary dates are in years ago. Each node has a stable address, shown after it. Forecast nodes list published forecasts only, each cited.
Illusion
Painted scenes (at least 51,200 years ago)
A red-ochre painting in Leang Karampuang cave, Sulawesi, shows human-like figures and a wild pig. Uranium-series dating of the calcite over it puts it at least 51,200 years old. It’s the oldest known scene that tells a story. So people have been painting imagined or remembered worlds for a very long time.
Led to: Linear perspective
Source: Oktaviana et al., ‘Narrative cave art in Indonesia by 51,200 years ago’, Nature 631 (2024)
Address: /trees/technology?n=cave-painting
Camera obscura explained (c. 1011–1021)
China recorded earlier that light through a small hole makes an upside-down image. The Later Mohist Canon (compiled between the late 4th and mid-3rd century BCE) explains the flip by rays crossing at the hole. Shen Kuo’s Dream Pool Essays (1088) said it again, calling the inversion after the small hole a normal principle. Ibn al-Haytham wrote his Kitāb al-Manāẓir (Book of Optics) in Cairo in the early eleventh century. He tested the hole image by experiment. He also argued that we see by receiving light, not by sending it out from the eye. His Optics later fed into Renaissance theories of perspective.
Led to: Linear perspective; Magic lantern; Photography
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Kitab al-manazir’ (and ‘Ibn al-Haytham’)
Address: /trees/technology?n=camera-obscura
Shadow theatre (11th century (securely documented))
In shadow theatre, flat figures behind a lit screen act out stories. It’s documented in Java by the 11th-century poem Arjunawiwaha (c. 1035), which compares the world to a puppet screen. It’s documented in China by Northern Song accounts (960–1127). Earlier claims are legend, or only name a performance without describing it. Examples are the Han story of Emperor Wu and the Jaha and Wukajana inscriptions of c. 840–907. So the earliest date isn’t secure.
Address: /trees/technology?n=shadow-theatre
Linear perspective (c. 1415–1425)
Filippo Brunelleschi showed a geometric way to paint a scene as it looks from one spot. Alberti wrote the method down in De pictura (1435). The rule is that parallel lines all meet at a vanishing point. Real-time graphics software uses the same projection on every frame.
Built on: Painted scenes; Camera obscura explained
Led to: The panorama; Photography; Stereoscope
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Linear perspective’
Address: /trees/technology?n=perspective
Magic lantern (c. 1659)
In 1659 Christiaan Huygens drew a set of skeleton images to be projected by a lantern with convex lenses. That’s the earliest surviving record of the device. It was the first widely used way to throw a painted or photographic image on a wall for an audience. For over two centuries it was the standard tool for public image shows.
Built on: Camera obscura explained
Led to: Projected moving pictures
Source: Magic Lantern Society (UK), ‘A brief history of the Magic Lantern’
Address: /trees/technology?n=magic-lantern
The panorama (1787–1788)
Robert Barker patented the panorama in 1787 and showed the first one, a view of Edinburgh, in 1788. Later rotundas held round paintings about 18 metres across or more. Viewers stood in the middle of a painted horizon that never broke. It was an early commercial try at swapping a visitor’s surroundings for a built scene.
Built on: Linear perspective
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Robert Barker’ and ‘Panorama’
Address: /trees/technology?n=panorama
Photography (c. 1826–1827)
Nicéphore Niépce made the earliest surviving camera photograph around 1826–27. It was a heliograph on a pewter plate, the view from his window at Le Gras, after an exposure of many hours. It fixed an optical image for good. So for the first time an image resembled the world through a machine, not through a hand.
Built on: Camera obscura explained; Linear perspective
Led to: Projected moving pictures
Source: Harry Ransom Center, University of Texas, ‘The First Photograph’ (Niépce heliograph)
Address: /trees/technology?n=photography
Motion from stills (1832)
Joseph Plateau in Ghent and Simon Stampfer in Vienna each came up with the phenakistiscope in 1832. It’s a slotted disc of drawings in sequence. Spin it and look in a mirror, and the drawings seem to move. It showed that the eye blends a fast series of still images into smooth motion. That’s the principle behind every film and video frame.
Led to: Projected moving pictures
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Phenakistoscope’
Address: /trees/technology?n=phenakistiscope
Stereoscope (1838)
In 1838 Charles Wheatstone showed that two slightly different flat drawings, one for each eye, merge into a single image with real-looking depth. He built a mirror stereoscope to prove it. The difference between the two eyes’ views became something you could control. Every headset since still uses it.
Built on: Linear perspective
Led to: Stereoscopic film; Sensorama; The Ultimate Display; Telesphere Mask
Address: /trees/technology?n=stereoscope
Stereo sound (1881)
At the 1881 Paris International Exposition of Electricity, Clément Ader’s system sent live performances from the Opera over telephone lines to visitors. It used paired transmitters and receivers, which gave a two-ear, spatial effect. A subscription service followed in 1890. It was an early sign that a sense of place could be sent by electricity to a listener far away.
Led to: Sensorama
Source: Bob’s Old Phones / Telephone Collecting, ‘Clément Ader’
Address: /trees/technology?n=theatrophone
Projected moving pictures (1895)
On 28 December 1895 the Lumière brothers showed the Cinématographe to a paying crowd at the Grand Café in Paris. It was a camera, printer and projector in one. Showing film to a shared audience made recorded motion something people experienced together. That’s the template for later shared screens and rooms.
Built on: Photography; Motion from stills; Magic lantern
Led to: Stereoscopic film; Sensorama; Aspen Movie Map; Telesphere Mask
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Cinématographe’
Address: /trees/technology?n=cinema
Stereoscopic film (1922; boom 1952–54; revival 2009 · Stalled)
Stereoscopic cinema took Wheatstone’s idea and put it on film. Anaglyph features were shown in the early 1920s. The polarised Natural Vision process set off the 1952 boom with Bwana Devil. Audiences lost interest within about a year. The format came back with digital cinema in 2009.
Why it stalled: It stalled because the picture was fixed. Every viewer saw the same two views no matter where they looked. Glasses and projector alignment were annoying. And the image had no way to respond to the viewer.
Built on: Projected moving pictures; Stereoscope
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘3-D’ (film process) and ‘Natural Vision’
Address: /trees/technology?n=3d-film
Flight simulator (1929)
Edwin Link built a cockpit driven by air pressure. It pitched, rolled and yawed as the pilot moved the controls, so trainees could practise instrument flying on the ground. The Allies used Link’s Blue Box in the Second World War, and more than 500,000 pilots are reported to have trained on such devices. It showed that a believable feel of flight could stand in for a real aircraft in training.
Source: ASME Landmark #210, ‘Link C-3 Flight Trainer’
Address: /trees/technology?n=link-trainer
Cochlear implant (1957; multichannel 1977–84)
Djourno and Eyries in Paris reported in 1957 that they had electrically stimulated the auditory nerve of a deaf patient. House and Doyle implanted a single-channel device in 1961. Multichannel devices (Hochmair, Clark) were implanted in 1977–78 and approved by the FDA for adults in the mid-1980s. Sound reaches the brain without a working ear. It was the first clinical case of a sense supplied by direct electrical stimulation of the nervous system.
Led to: Brain-computer interface
Source: Lasker Foundation, ‘Modern cochlear implant’ (2013 Clinical Medical Research Award)
Address: /trees/technology?n=cochlear
Telesphere Mask (1960)
Morton Heilig patented a head-worn viewer that gave each eye its own image, with stereo sound. That was years before any computer drove such a display. It played prerecorded film and didn’t track the head.
Built on: Stereoscope; Projected moving pictures
Led to: Head-mounted display
Source: Heilig, US Patent 2,955,156, “Stereoscopic-television apparatus for individual use” (1960)
Address: /trees/technology?n=telesphere
Sensorama (1962 (patent; prototype 1957–62) · Stalled)
Morton Heilig’s Sensorama Simulator (US patent 3,050,870, filed 1961, granted 1962) was an arcade booth. It played pre-filmed stereoscopic colour footage with stereo sound, vibration, wind and scent. It was the first try at engaging several senses at once in one machine. It’s the usual starting point for the history of virtual reality.
Why it stalled: It stalled because everything was pre-recorded on film. No computer made or changed the scene, so the viewer could look but never change anything.
Built on: Projected moving pictures; Stereoscope; Stereo sound
Source: US Patent 3,050,870, M. L. Heilig, ‘Sensorama Simulator’ (filed 10 Jan 1961, granted 28 Aug 1962)
Address: /trees/technology?n=sensorama
Virtual worlds
First video games (1958; 1962)
William Higinbotham’s Tennis for Two (October 1958, Brookhaven) drew a ball’s flight on an oscilloscope under analog-computer control. Spacewar! (1962) was a two-player space combat game written for MIT’s PDP-1 digital computer. Together they showed that a machine could host a small, shared world with rules that players act in.
Built on: Stored-program computer
Led to: Arcade video game
Source: Computer History Museum, ‘Spacewar!' (see also CHM timeline 1958 for Tennis for Two)
Address: /trees/technology?n=tennis-for-two
Interactive graphics (1963)
Ivan Sutherland’s doctoral thesis at MIT (1963) described Sketchpad. It ran on the TX-2 and let a user draw and edit line diagrams with a light pen, with constraints and reusable master drawings. It made the interactive display a way to work on a model held in a computer.
Built on: Stored-program computer
Led to: The Ultimate Display; First-person networked world; Realistic shading
Address: /trees/technology?n=sketchpad
Simulacron-3 (1964 · Idea)
Daniel F. Galouye’s novel Simulacron-3 (1964; UK title Counterfeit World) describes a city simulated on a computer. Its people don’t know they’re programs. It’s one of the earliest novels about a world run inside a computer. It’s also a common reference point in writing on the simulation argument.
Built on: Stored-program computer
Source: The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, ‘Galouye, Daniel F.'
Address: /trees/technology?n=simulacron
The Ultimate Display (1965 · Idea)
In his 1965 paper to the IFIP Congress, Sutherland proposed a computer-driven display so complete that it could control matter in the room. He wrote that a chair displayed there would be good enough to sit in. It set the goal of virtual reality as a world you couldn’t tell from reality in any sense.
Built on: Interactive graphics; Stereoscope
Led to: Head-mounted display
Source: I. E. Sutherland, ‘The Ultimate Display’, Proc. IFIP Congress 1965, vol. 2, pp. 506–508 (scan)
Address: /trees/technology?n=ultimate
Head-mounted display (1968)
In 1968 Sutherland and Bob Sproull built a head-mounted display. It showed a user simple wireframe 3D graphics, which a computer redrew as the user’s head moved. The optics hung from the ceiling (the ‘Sword of Damocles’). It was the first system to combine a head-worn display, computer-generated images and head tracking.
Built on: The Ultimate Display; Telesphere Mask
Led to: Data glove; “virtual reality”; CAVE; Virtual Boy; Modern VR headset
Address: /trees/technology?n=damocles
Realistic shading (1971–1980)
Henri Gouraud (1971) and Bui Tuong Phong (1973–75) devised smooth shading and a lighting model for polygon surfaces. Turner Whitted (1980) showed recursive ray tracing with reflection and refraction. Each step moved computer images closer to how light behaves. The techniques became the basis of film and game rendering.
Built on: Interactive graphics
Led to: CAVE; Real-time 3D worlds
Address: /trees/technology?n=shading
Arcade video game (1972)
Atari’s Pong was designed by Allan Alcorn from a concept by Nolan Bushnell. It was first placed in a Sunnyvale bar in late 1972 and sold in large numbers. It was built from logic chips, not a microprocessor. It made the video game a commercial public pastime. It also funded the industry that later drove graphics hardware.
Built on: First video games; Integrated circuit
Led to: Cyberspace
Source: The Strong National Museum of Play, ‘Pong’
Address: /trees/technology?n=pong
First-person networked world (1973–74)
Maze was written at NASA Ames in 1973 by Steve Colley, Greg Thompson and Howard Palmer on Imlac PDS-1 computers. It showed the view down corridors from the player’s own position. It started with two linked machines, then added shooting and bots. It was an early first-person shared 3D space. It’s a likely ancestor of the networked first-person shooter.
Built on: Packet network; Interactive graphics
The sources leave this date or claim uncertain.
Source: DigiBarn Computer Museum, Steve Colley, ‘Maze War’ history
Address: /trees/technology?n=maze-war
Colossal Cave Adventure (1975–76)
Will Crowther wrote this text game in 1975, and Don Woods extended it in 1976. A player explored a cave described in prose by typing commands. It set up the explorable, rule-bound world described in text. The first multi-user worlds built on it.
Built on: Stored-program computer
Led to: Shared text world
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, “Adventure”
Address: /trees/technology?n=adventure
Shared text world (1978–1980)
Roy Trubshaw began MUD at the University of Essex in autumn 1978, and Richard Bartle joined the work. Once Essex was linked to ARPANET in spring 1980, outsiders could connect. It was a lasting multi-user world of rooms and objects that several people occupied at once. It set the pattern for later online worlds.
Built on: Packet network; Colossal Cave Adventure
Led to: Graphical online world; Persistent online worlds
Source: Richard Bartle, ‘Early MUD history’
Address: /trees/technology?n=mud
Aspen Movie Map (1978–79)
MIT’s Architecture Machine Group filmed Aspen street by street in 1978–79. A user could drive through the stored footage on a touch-screen laserdisc system, turning left, turning right or stopping at will. It was an early interactive, navigable picture of a real place. It was a forerunner of street-level mapping.
Built on: Projected moving pictures; Stored-program computer
Source: MIT Media Lab, ‘The Aspen Movie Map beat Google Street View by 34 years’
Address: /trees/technology?n=aspen
Cyberspace (1982–84 · Idea)
William Gibson coined the word ‘cyberspace’ in the story ‘Burning Chrome’ (Omni, July 1982). He made it popular in the novel Neuromancer (1984), as a shared graphical space of data that you can move around in. It gave a name and an image to the idea of an online world, and engineers later cited it.
Built on: Arcade video game
Led to: The Metaverse
Source: The Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, ‘Cyberspace’
Address: /trees/technology?n=cyberspace
Data glove; “virtual reality” (1985–1987)
Jaron Lanier founded VPL Research in 1985. Its DataGlove (1987) and EyePhone headset were the first commercial VR products. Britannica credits Lanier with coining the term ‘virtual reality’ in 1987. The company put body-tracking input and a head display within reach outside military and academic labs.
Built on: Head-mounted display
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Jaron Lanier’
Address: /trees/technology?n=vpl
Graphical online world (1986–88)
Habitat was built by Chip Morningstar and Randy Farmer at Lucasfilm Games for the Commodore 64, over the Quantum Link service. It ran as a pilot in 1986. Users showed up as cartoon figures called avatars in a shared graphical world. It tested at scale what happens when thousands of people live in a designed virtual place. The builders published the lessons.
Built on: Shared text world
Led to: The Metaverse; Persistent online worlds
Source: Morningstar and Farmer, ‘The Lessons of Lucasfilm’s Habitat’ (1990)
Address: /trees/technology?n=habitat
CAVE (1992)
The CAVE was described in 1992 by Cruz-Neira, Sandin, DeFanti and colleagues at the University of Illinois at Chicago. It projected stereo images on the walls and floor of a room. Several people could stand inside a shared virtual scene wearing light glasses. It showed an immersive alternative to the head-worn display.
Built on: Head-mounted display; Realistic shading
Address: /trees/technology?n=cave
The Metaverse (1992 · Idea)
Neal Stephenson’s novel Snow Crash (1992) coined the word ‘metaverse’. It means a shared 3D online world where people appear as avatars. Technology firms revived the term decades later as a name for the next stage of online worlds.
Built on: Cyberspace; Graphical online world
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Snow Crash’
Address: /trees/technology?n=metaverse
Real-time 3D worlds (1993–1996)
Id Software’s Doom (December 1993) put networked players in texture-mapped first-person levels on ordinary PCs. Quake (1996) drew true polygonal 3D with real-time lighting. Fast first-person 3D on consumer hardware created the market and the techniques for later virtual worlds.
Built on: Realistic shading; Microprocessor
Led to: Persistent online worlds
Source: The Strong National Museum of Play, ‘Quake’ (with Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Doom’)
Address: /trees/technology?n=doom
Virtual Boy (1995–96 · Stalled)
Nintendo’s Virtual Boy (Japan July 1995, North America August 1995) was a table-mounted stereoscopic console. It showed red, wireframe-style images. It was pulled within a year. Nintendo’s own Iwata later called it a commercial failure.
Why it stalled: It stalled because in 1995 there was no affordable compact full-colour display and no head tracking. The red single-colour image, fixed viewing position and awkward fit tired users quickly.
Built on: Head-mounted display; Integrated circuit
Source: Iwata Asks, ‘Shigeru Miyamoto talks Virtual Boy’, Nintendo
Address: /trees/technology?n=virtualboy
Persistent online worlds (1997–2003)
Ultima Online (1997), EverQuest (1999) and Second Life (2003) put very large numbers of people into lasting graphical worlds. The worlds kept going when any player logged off. They had economies and social structures of their own. They’re the best evidence we have of how people behave in long-lived virtual places.
Built on: Graphical online world; Shared text world; Real-time 3D worlds; World Wide Web
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Ultima Online’ and ‘Online gaming’
Address: /trees/technology?n=mmo
Brain-computer interface (2004–2006)
In 2006 Hochberg and colleagues reported on a man paralysed from the neck down. He could move a computer cursor and run a simple robotic hand using signals from a microelectrode array implanted in his motor cortex. It showed that voluntary neural activity could be read out as a control signal.
Built on: Cochlear implant; Microprocessor
Led to: Full-immersion VR; Whole-brain emulation
Address: /trees/technology?n=bci
Modern VR headset (2012–13 (developer kit); 2016 (consumer))
Oculus raised $2.4 million on Kickstarter in 2012. It shipped the Rift DK1 developer kit from late March 2013. The consumer Rift followed on 28 March 2016. It paired phone-class displays and sensors with a GPU and low-latency head tracking. That made a wide-view headset cheap enough for developers and consumers.
Built on: Head-mounted display; Graphics processor; Smartphone
Led to: Room-scale tracking
Source: Road to VR, ‘3 years ago the Oculus Rift DK1 shipped, here’s a quick look back’
Address: /trees/technology?n=rift
Room-scale tracking (2015–2016)
HTC and Valve announced the Vive in March 2015 and shipped it on 5 April 2016. It used Valve’s Lighthouse system, which sweeps infrared lasers across a play area. A headset and two hand controllers could be tracked precisely over about four metres. Walking and reaching inside a virtual space, not just turning your head, became standard.
Built on: Modern VR headset
Led to: Standalone headsets
Source: Road to VR, ‘HTC, Valve and SteamVR: a 2015 retrospective and CES 2016 preview’
Address: /trees/technology?n=roomscale
Standalone headsets (2018–2019)
Oculus Quest (21 May 2019) was a self-contained headset. It used four cameras to track the headset and both controllers from the inside, with no PC or base stations. Earlier standalone units (Oculus Go, Lenovo Mirage Solo, Vive Focus, 2018) tracked at most the head position. The Quest made full tracking portable.
Built on: Room-scale tracking; Smartphone
Led to: Full-immersion VR
Source: Road to VR, ‘Oculus announces Quest, the high-end standalone headset starting at $400’
Address: /trees/technology?n=standalone
Neural rendering (2020–2023)
Mildenhall et al.’s Neural Radiance Fields (2020) learned a scene from photographs and drew new views of it. 3D Gaussian Splatting (Kerbl et al., 2023) did it in real time. Photo-real 3D scenes you can explore can now be captured, not modelled by hand.
Built on: Deep learning on GPUs; Graphics processor
Led to: Generated interactive worlds; Real-time photorealism
Address: /trees/technology?n=neural-rendering
Generated interactive worlds (2024–2025)
In 2024, research systems such as Google DeepMind’s Genie and the GameNGen diffusion model generated each frame of a playable environment from the player’s input. They had no hand-written game engine. GameNGen simulated the game Doom at over 20 frames per second. By 2025 the demonstrations ran for minutes at interactive speeds. They’re still research prototypes.
Built on: Transformer architecture; Neural rendering; Learned world models; Diffusion models
Source: Valevski et al., ‘Diffusion Models Are Real-Time Game Engines’ (GameNGen), arXiv:2408.14837 (2024)
Address: /trees/technology?n=world-models
Real-time photorealism (2029–2034 · Forecast)
Industry figures have forecast real-time images you can’t tell from photographs. In 2024 one major vendor stated a window of 5 to 10 years. A 2013 forecast of ten years for the same milestone came due in 2023. No one claimed it had been met.
Built on: Neural rendering
Published forecasts:- Tim Sweeney (Epic Games) (2013): within ten years of 2013 (c. 2023). MCV/Develop conference report, 11 July 2013
- Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) (2024): 5–10 years (2029–2034) for real-time AI-generated pixels. Press Q&A after GTC 2024 keynote, reported by Wccftech, 21 March 2024
- Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO) (2025): Qualifier: no fully AI-generated graphics; hybrid rendering stays. CES 2025 remarks, PCWorld, 7 January 2025
Address: /trees/technology?n=photoreal
Full-immersion VR (2029–2030s · Forecast)
One named futurist has published dates for VR that works at the level of the nervous system. He puts it in the late 2020s to the 2030s, by way of nanobots in the brain. We found no expert survey or independent forecast of this milestone. No such system has been demonstrated.
Built on: Brain-computer interface; Standalone headsets; Molecular nanotechnology
Published forecasts:- Ray Kurzweil (2002): 2029. Remarks of 26 March 2002, Kurzweil Library page
- Ray Kurzweil (2015): 2030s. Webinar reported by Peter Diamandis, Singularity Hub, 12 Oct 2015
- Ray Kurzweil (2024): ‘within our lifetimes’ (no year given on page). The Singularity Is Nearer, Viking/Penguin, June 2024 (publisher description)
Address: /trees/technology?n=fulldive
Whole-brain emulation (2050–2075 · Bridge)
Also in the Simulations tree and Becoming synthetic.
The 2008 FHI roadmap judged that emulation was possible before mid-century only if models at the electrophysiological level are enough. Finer detail would need later dates. A 2014 Monte Carlo model gives a median of 2064, if it arrives at all. The Metaculus community median is about 2073.
Built on: Human-level AI; Brain-computer interface
Published forecasts:- Sandberg & Bostrom (2008): before mid-century if electrophysiological models suffice; animal models one to two decades earlier; table of earliest dates by detail level (spiking network 2019–2042, electrophysiology 2033–2068, metabolome 2044–2087). Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap, Technical Report 2008–3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford, 2008
- Anders Sandberg (2014): 50% by 2064 (25th percentile 2053, 75th 2080), conditional on WBE ever arriving; 2.4% before 2040. Monte Carlo model of brain emulation development, FHI working paper 2014–1
- Metaculus community (question 2813, first whole human brain emulated) (2026): median about November 2073. Metaculus community forecast, as shown in search results on 16 October 2026 (check the live question)
- Robin Hanson (2016): within perhaps a century of 2016. The Age of Em, Oxford University Press, 2016 (ISBN 978–0198754626)
- Dario Amodei (2024): outside the 5–10 years after powerful AI. ‘Machines of Loving Grace’, Oct 2024
Address: /trees/technology?n=wbe
Star-scale computer (c. 2250 or later · Forecast)
Dyson (1960) proposed that advanced civilisations would capture starlight. Bradbury (1997–99) extended this to nested shells that run computers on the star’s waste heat. The only dated estimate we found is Bradbury’s. It’s about 2250 if current silicon production trends continued, and within a few thousand years at most.
Built on: Moore’s law; Molecular nanotechnology
Published forecasts:- Freeman Dyson (1960): no date given. ‘Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infra-Red Radiation’, Science 131(3414), 3 June 1960
- Robert J. Bradbury (1999): by 2250 from current silicon trends; ‘within at most a few thousand years’; once begun, ~20 years for minor bodies, 10–1000 years for gas giants. ‘Matrioshka Brains’, manuscript dated 21 July 1999 (not peer reviewed; concept from 1997 discussions)
- Stuart Armstrong & Anders Sandberg (2013): no date; ‘in the foreseeable future’. ‘Eternity in six hours’, Acta Astronautica 89, 2013
- Nick Bostrom (2003): no date; capability figure only: ~1042 operations per second for a planetary-mass computer. ‘Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?', Philosophical Quarterly 53(211), 2003
Address: /trees/technology?n=matrioshka
Computation
Abacus (uncertain; Mesopotamian counting boards of the 3rd millennium BC (disputed); oldest surviving board c. 300 BC)
A counting board, or abacus, is a surface where counters stand for place values. By moving them you can add, subtract, multiply and divide. Mesopotamian examples are often claimed, but none survives and the claim is disputed. The oldest surviving board is the Salamis tablet (c. 300 BC), though some see it as a gaming board. It shows that calculation can be moved into a physical state that a mechanism, and later a circuit, can hold.
Led to: Mechanical calculator
The sources leave this date or claim uncertain.
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Abacus’
Address: /trees/technology?n=abacus
Zero as a number (628 CE (Brahmagupta); placeholder dot earlier, date disputed · Idea)
Brahmagupta’s Brāhmasphuṭasiddhānta (628 CE) is the earliest surviving text to treat zero as a number with its own rules. Adding or subtracting zero leaves a number unchanged. A number times zero is zero. His rules for dividing by zero were incomplete, and his 0 ÷ 0 = 0 is wrong. A dot used as a placeholder appears earlier in the Bakhshali manuscript. But radiocarbon dates for its folios run from as early as the 3rd–4th century CE to the 9th–10th. So the date of its zero is disputed.
Led to: Binary arithmetic; Algorithms (al-Khwārizmī)
Address: /trees/technology?n=zero
Algorithms (al-Khwārizmī) (c. 820s CE (Arabic original lost); Latin 12th century · Idea)
In early 9th-century Baghdad, al-Khwārizmī wrote a treatise on the Hindu place-value numerals, including zero, and on calculating with them. The Arabic text is lost. The Latin translation, Algoritmi de numero Indorum, is known to differ a lot from it. Through it, and the later algorismus texts, the Hindu-Arabic numerals and their written arithmetic reached Europe. The word ‘algorithm’ comes from the Latinized form of his name.
Built on: Zero as a number
Led to: Mechanical calculator
Address: /trees/technology?n=algorithm
Self-playing flute (Baghdad) (9th century)
The Banū Mūsā brothers wrote their Book of Ingenious Devices in 9th-century Baghdad. It describes a flute that plays by itself. A water-driven mechanism pushes air to sound pipes under a revolving cylinder, and swapping the cylinder changes the tune. Koetsier (2001) counts it among the earliest programmable machines. Al-Jazari’s 1206 book describes later musical automata. But no documented line runs from either work to the European pinned barrel or to the Jacquard loom.
Address: /trees/technology?n=banu-musa-flute
Mechanical calculator (1642–1644)
From 1642 Blaise Pascal built a geared adding machine to help his father’s tax work. He made about fifty. Britannica calls it the first calculator made in quantity and actually used. Arithmetic moved from hands to gears.
Built on: Abacus; Algorithms (al-Khwārizmī)
Led to: Analytical Engine; Difference Engine
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Pascaline’
Address: /trees/technology?n=pascaline
Binary arithmetic (1703 (printed 1705) · Idea)
In a manuscript dated 15 March 1679 (De progressione dyadica), Leibniz set out arithmetic in base two. He also sketched a calculating machine without wheels. In it, balls drop through holes that sliding slots open and close, and that does the sums. He never built it, though a working model was made at the Deutsches Museum in the early 2000s. His paper was read to the Paris Academy in 1703 and printed in 1705. It also links the 0–1 notation to the hexagram figures of the Yijing, attributed to Fu Xi, which Joachim Bouvet had sent him from Beijing (received April 1703). An earlier Indian scheme appears in Piṅgala’s Chandaḥśāstra (date uncertain, about the 3rd to 2nd century BCE). It lists metres of short and long syllables in a way later readers analysed as binary.
Built on: Zero as a number
Led to: Zuse Z3
Source: Leibniz, ‘Explanation of Binary Arithmetic’ (1703), English translation
Address: /trees/technology?n=binary
Punched-card loom (1804)
Joseph Marie Jacquard’s 1804 loom used a chain of punched cards to pick which warp threads to lift. To change the pattern, you changed the cards. Bouchon (1725) and Falcon (1728) had used punched paper or cards before him. But Jacquard’s version was widely adopted, and Babbage borrowed its card-reading idea.
Led to: Analytical Engine
Source: Science Museum Group, ‘Model of Falcon’s loom’ (Jacquard refined Falcon’s method in 1804)
Address: /trees/technology?n=jacquard
Difference Engine (1822 (proposed); built 1991 · Stalled)
Babbage designed a machine to compute and print mathematical tables by the method of finite differences. It would take human error out of the arithmetic. A small working section was shown. The full engine wasn’t built in his lifetime.
Why it stalled: Work halted in 1833 after a dispute with his engineer, Joseph Clement. The Science Museum finished Difference Engine No. 2 from his drawings in 1991. That showed the design itself was sound.
Built on: Mechanical calculator
Led to: Analytical Engine
Source: Science Museum, “Charles Babbage’s Difference Engines and the Science Museum”
Analytical Engine (1837 (conceived 1834) · Stalled)
Charles Babbage designed a programmable mechanical computer. It had a store, an arithmetic mill, conditional branching and instructions on punched cards. It anticipated the layout of later computers by a century. Only a trial piece was built before he died in 1871.
Why it stalled: It stalled because it needed thousands of parts, and 1840s Britain couldn’t supply the precision engineering, steady funding and settled design that took. The Computer History Museum lists runaway costs, high precision demands, a dispute with his engineer and patchy financing.
Built on: Punched-card loom; Mechanical calculator; Difference Engine
Led to: Note G
Note G (1843 · Idea)
Ada Lovelace translated Menabrea’s paper and added notes. Note G is a worked table of operations for computing Bernoulli numbers on the Analytical Engine. She also remarked that the engine might act on things other than number, such as musical composition, if their relations could be expressed. That second claim is the first clear statement that a computing machine handles symbols, not just quantities.
Built on: Analytical Engine
Address: /trees/technology?n=lovelace
Boolean logic (1847; 1854 · Idea)
George Boole’s Mathematical Analysis of Logic (1847) and An Investigation of the Laws of Thought (1854) treated logical statements as an algebra with two values. That meant reasoning could be calculated. Shannon later showed that circuits carry out this algebra. So Boole’s system became the logical basis of digital hardware.
Led to: Universal machine; Logic in circuits
Source: George Boole, An Investigation of the Laws of Thought (1854), Project Gutenberg
Address: /trees/technology?n=boole
Vacuum tube (1904–1907)
John Ambrose Fleming’s two-electrode valve (1904) turned radio signals into a usable form. Lee de Forest added a grid to make the three-electrode Audion (1906–07), which could amplify and switch electrical signals. The triode was the working part of radio, telephony and the first electronic computers.
Led to: Electronic computer; Transistor; Colossus
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Thermionic valve’
Address: /trees/technology?n=vacuum-tube
Universal machine (1936–37 · Idea)
Alan Turing’s ‘On Computable Numbers’ (read in 1936, published 1936–37) defined an abstract machine. It showed that one universal machine can do the work of any other, given that other’s description as input. That’s the theoretical reason one general computer can run any simulated world. It also sets the limits on what such a simulation can compute.
Built on: Boolean logic
Led to: The stored-program design
Address: /trees/technology?n=turing
Logic in circuits (1937–38 · Idea)
Claude Shannon’s master’s thesis at MIT (1937, published 1938) showed that networks of relays and switches can be analysed and designed with Boolean algebra. It tied abstract logic to physical circuits. Engineers now had a systematic way to design digital machines.
Built on: Boolean logic
Led to: Electronic computer
Source: C. E. Shannon, ‘A Symbolic Analysis of Relay and Switching Circuits’, MIT thesis (1937)
Address: /trees/technology?n=shannon
Zuse Z3 (1941)
Konrad Zuse completed the Z3 in Berlin in 1941. It had about 2,400 relays, a binary number system and 22-bit floating-point words. The program was read in sequence from punched tape. The IEEE Computer Society’s history site calls it the first fully working program-controlled electromechanical digital computer in the world. It had no conditional branch, and it kept its program outside the machine’s memory.
Built on: Binary arithmetic
Address: /trees/technology?n=z3
Colossus (1943–44)
Tommy Flowers’s electronic machines at Bletchley Park read cipher text from paper tape. They used valves (2,500 in the Mark 2) to find the wheel settings of the German Lorenz cipher. They were electronic and configurable, but built for one task. They were kept secret for many years after the war.
Built on: Vacuum tube
Source: The National Museum of Computing, “Colossus”
Address: /trees/technology?n=colossus
Electronic computer (1945–46)
ENIAC was completed at the University of Pennsylvania in 1945 and announced publicly in February 1946. It used about 18,000 vacuum tubes. You could rewire it to solve a wide range of numerical problems. It showed that electronic speed was practical for general computing. But reprogramming took days.
Built on: Vacuum tube; Logic in circuits
Led to: The stored-program design
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘ENIAC’
Address: /trees/technology?n=eniac
Stored-program computer (1945 (design); 1948 (first run))
On 21 June 1948 the Manchester Small-Scale Experimental Machine (‘Baby’), built by Williams and Kilburn, ran its first program from its own electronic memory. The program was 17 instructions long and searched for the highest proper factor of a number. Keeping instructions and data in the same memory is what lets software change at electronic speed. It’s also what lets simulations be loaded.
Built on: The stored-program design
Led to: Packet network; Interactive graphics; Simulacron-3; First video games; Aspen Movie Map; Colossal Cave Adventure
Source: University of Manchester, ‘Manchester Baby computer’ (Computer 50 archive)
Address: /trees/technology?n=stored-program
The stored-program design (1945 · Idea)
John von Neumann’s First Draft of a Report on the EDVAC described a computer that keeps its program in the same memory as its data. Almost every computer since has used this layout.
Built on: Electronic computer; Universal machine
Led to: Stored-program computer
Source: von Neumann, First Draft of a Report on the EDVAC (30 June 1945), Internet Archive
Address: /trees/technology?n=edvac
Transistor (1947–48)
John Bardeen and Walter Brattain demonstrated a point-contact transistor at Bell Laboratories in December 1947. William Shockley developed the junction form soon after. The three shared the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physics. It was a solid-state amplifier and switch with no heater and no vacuum. Computers became smaller, faster and far more reliable.
Built on: Vacuum tube
Led to: Integrated circuit
Source: Nobel Prize in Physics 1956, summary
Address: /trees/technology?n=transistor
Integrated circuit (1958–59)
Jack Kilby at Texas Instruments built a working integrated circuit in September 1958. Robert Noyce at Fairchild devised a planar silicon version that could be manufactured in 1959. Kilby shared the 2000 Nobel Prize in Physics. Putting many parts on one piece of material made complex electronics cheap. That set up the scaling of computing power.
Built on: Transistor
Led to: Moore’s law; Microprocessor; Arcade video game; Virtual Boy
Source: Nobel Prize in Physics 2000, Jack S. Kilby facts
Address: /trees/technology?n=ic
Moore’s law (1965 (revised 1975) · Idea)
In an April 1965 article in Electronics, Gordon Moore observed that the number of components per integrated circuit had doubled about every year. He projected the trend for a decade. In 1975 he changed the rate to about every two years. The projection held roughly for five decades. It set the pace at which simulated worlds could grow richer.
Built on: Integrated circuit
Led to: Star-scale computer; Molecular nanotechnology; Reversible computing
Source: Computer History Museum, ‘Moore’s Law predicts the future of integrated circuits’
Address: /trees/technology?n=moores-law
Packet network (1969)
ARPANET sent its first host-to-host message from UCLA to SRI on 29 October 1969. Minicomputers called IMPs routed the packets. It grew into a national research network. Shared virtual spaces need machines that swap data in real time. ARPANET was the first large network built on packet switching.
Built on: Stored-program computer
Led to: First-person networked world; Shared text world; The Internet
Source: Computer History Museum, ‘October 29, 1969: Happy 40th birthday to a radical idea’
Address: /trees/technology?n=arpanet
Microprocessor (1971)
Intel’s 4004 came out in November 1971. Hoff, Mazor, Faggin and Shima designed it for a Busicom calculator. It put a programmable central processor on a single chip. General computing became cheap enough for personal machines, consoles and, eventually, phones.
Built on: Integrated circuit
Led to: Graphics processor; Smartphone; Real-time 3D worlds; Brain-computer interface
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica, ‘Intel 4004’
Address: /trees/technology?n=microprocessor
The Internet (1983)
In January 1983 the ARPANET switched to the TCP/IP protocols. They’re the common language that lets separate networks connect. Shared online worlds run over this network of networks.
Built on: Packet network
Led to: World Wide Web
Source: Computer History Museum, “Internet History of 1980s”
Address: /trees/technology?n=internet
World Wide Web (1989–1991)
Tim Berners-Lee proposed a linked hypertext system at CERN in March 1989. By the end of 1990 he had the first server and browser running there. He announced the software publicly in August 1991. It made the Internet usable for non-specialists. It became the common way to reach shared online spaces.
Built on: The Internet
Led to: Persistent online worlds
Source: CERN, ‘A short history of the Web’
Address: /trees/technology?n=web
Graphics processor (1999)
Nvidia’s GeForce 256 (October 1999) put transformation and lighting on a single chip. It was marketed as the first graphics processing unit. That moved per-pixel and per-vertex work off the CPU. Cheap parallel graphics hardware is what put real-time 3D worlds within reach. Later it did the same for large-scale neural computing.
Built on: Microprocessor
Led to: General-purpose GPU computing; Modern VR headset; Neural rendering
Address: /trees/technology?n=gpu
General-purpose GPU computing (2006–2007)
Nvidia announced CUDA in 2006 and released it in June 2007. It let programmers write ordinary C-like code for a GPU’s thousands of parallel threads. Graphics hardware became a general parallel computer. That’s what later made training large neural networks practical.
Built on: Graphics processor
Led to: Deep learning on GPUs
Address: /trees/technology?n=gpgpu
Smartphone (2007)
Apple announced the iPhone in January 2007 and released it in June. It put a touch display, a capable processor and motion sensors in a pocket device, and mass production of those parts followed. The result was a supply of cheap high-density displays, motion sensors and mobile chips. That made consumer headsets possible.
Built on: Microprocessor
Led to: Modern VR headset; Standalone headsets
Source: Apple Newsroom, ‘Apple reinvents the phone with iPhone’ (9 January 2007)
Address: /trees/technology?n=smartphone
Deep learning on GPUs (2012)
In September 2012 AlexNet won the ImageNet image-classification contest by a wide margin. It was a convolutional network that Krizhevsky, Sutskever and Hinton trained on two GPUs. The result showed that large neural networks trained on parallel hardware beat hand-built methods at perception tasks.
Built on: General-purpose GPU computing
Led to: Transformer architecture; Neural rendering; Learned world models; Diffusion models
Address: /trees/technology?n=deep-learning
Transformer architecture (2017)
Vaswani and colleagues at Google introduced the Transformer in 2017. It’s a network built on attention. It handles sequences in parallel and scales well with data and computing power. It’s the architecture behind large language models, which can produce open-ended, conversational behaviour.
Built on: Deep learning on GPUs
Led to: Generated interactive worlds; Human-level AI
Source: Vaswani et al., ‘Attention Is All You Need’, NeurIPS (2017), arXiv:1706.03762
Address: /trees/technology?n=transformer
Learned world models (2018)
Ha and Schmidhuber trained a neural network to model a game environment. Then they trained an agent inside the model’s own imagined version of it. A world could now be learned from watching, not written by hand.
Built on: Deep learning on GPUs
Led to: Generated interactive worlds
Source: Ha and Schmidhuber, “World Models”, arXiv:1803.10122 (2018)
Address: /trees/technology?n=learned-worlds
Diffusion models (2020)
Ho, Jain and Abbeel showed that a network trained to remove noise step by step can generate high-quality images from random input. The method sits under most later image, video and interactive-world generators.
Built on: Deep learning on GPUs
Led to: Generated interactive worlds
Source: Ho, Jain and Abbeel, “Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models”, arXiv:2006.11239 (2020)
Address: /trees/technology?n=diffusion
Molecular nanotechnology (2010–2030s · Forecast)
Forecasters in the 1990s–2000s dated programmable molecular assembly and brain-entering nanobots to 2010–2029. Diamondoid assembly was forecast for 2010–2015 and hasn’t been demonstrated. So this is a record of dates that passed.
Built on: Moore’s law
Led to: Full-immersion VR; Star-scale computer
Published forecasts:- Robert J. Bradbury, citing Zyvex’s Jim Von Ehr and Drexler 1998 (1999): 2010–2015 (Zyvex: by 2010). ‘Matrioshka Brains’ manuscript, 1999
- Ray Kurzweil (2002): by 2029. Remarks 26 March 2002, Kurzweil Library
- Ray Kurzweil (2015): 2030s. Singularity Hub report, 12 Oct 2015
Address: /trees/technology?n=nanotech
Human-level AI (2027–2047 · Forecast)
Forecasts for machines that beat humans at every task run from 2026–2030, in statements by AI-lab leaders, to a 2047 median in the 2023 survey of 2,778 researchers. Surveys have moved earlier over time. They gave 2040–2050 in 2012–13, 2060 in 2022 and 2047 in 2023.
Built on: Transformer architecture
Led to: Whole-brain emulation; Superintelligence
Published forecasts:- Grace et al. (AI Impacts), survey of 2,778 AI researchers, run October 2023 (2024): HLMI: 10% by 2027, 50% by 2047; full automation of all occupations 10% by 2037, 50% by 2116. arXiv:2401.02843 ‘Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI’ (Jan 2024; v3 Oct 2025)
- Müller & Bostrom, survey of four expert groups (2012–13) (2016): 50% chance of high-level machine intelligence around 2040–2050; 90% by 2075. ‘Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion’, in Fundamental Issues of AI, Springer, 2016
- Metaculus community (question 5121, first general AI system) (2026): median April 2030; interquartile range about 2026 to 2038. Metaculus community forecast, as shown in search results on 16 October 2026 (check the live question)
- Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) (2024): ‘powerful AI’ as early as 2026, or much later. ‘Machines of Loving Grace’, Oct 2024
- Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind CEO) (2025): capabilities emerging in 5–10 years (2030–2035). CNBC interview, 17 March 2025
- Ray Kurzweil (2005): computers pass the Turing test / human-level intelligence by 2029. The Singularity Is Near (Viking, 2005; ISBN 978–0670033843), reaffirmed in The Singularity Is Nearer (Viking, June 2024)
- Hans Moravec (1998): hardware matching the brain in home computers before 2030. ‘When will computer hardware match the human brain?', Journal of Evolution and Technology vol. 1, 1998
Address: /trees/technology?n=agi
Reversible computing (2027–2040 · Forecast)
Reversible logic avoids the Landauer minimum energy cost of erasing bits. It’s proposed as the route to far more computing per watt. A startup projects a first inference chip in 2027 and a 4,000-fold efficiency gain 10 to 15 years later. A 2014 expert interview didn’t expect wide use by 2030.
Built on: Moore’s law
Published forecasts:- Hannah Earley (Vaire CTO); Michael Frank (2025): chip in 2027; 4,000x in 10–15 years (2035–2040). Dina Genkina, ‘Reversible Computing Escapes the Lab in 2025’, IEEE Spectrum, 2 Jan 2025 (update 22 May 2025)
- Erik DeBenedictis (Sandia) (2014): not widely used by 2030; some applications by 2030. MIRI interview, 3 April 2014
Address: /trees/technology?n=reversible
Superintelligence (2027–2045+ · Forecast)
Surveyed experts expect superintelligence within 30 years of human-level machine intelligence. Scenario authors and Kurzweil give dates between 2027 and 2045. Researchers surveyed in 2023 put substantial but not majority odds on a fast ‘intelligence explosion’.
Built on: Human-level AI
Published forecasts:- Müller & Bostrom (2016): within less than 30 years after HLMI. Future progress in AI: a survey of expert opinion, 2016
- Kokotajlo, Alexander, Larsen, Lifland, Dean (2025): ASI Dec 2027 in the scenario; medians later (e.g. one author’s median 2030). AI 2027 scenario, 3 April 2025 (updated Nov-Dec 2025)
- Ray Kurzweil (2005): 2045. The Singularity Is Near, 2005 (via AI Impacts summary)
Address: /trees/technology?n=asi