Filin gwaji · abin da tafiyar da sararin samaniya na kwaikwayo ke ɗauka

Ƙarfin lissafin da ake buƙata kimanta kawai

1.3 × 10⁶⁸ FLOPS

Ba za a taɓa yi da ƙarfin tauraro ɗaya ba da dabarar lissafi ta yau da kullum, ko a ƙasan zafi. Ƙirgen lokaci ▸

Fiye da ƙarfin da Rana ke fitarwa, ko da a chips na yau da kullum a iyakar thermodynamics (bit ɗaya da aka goge a kowane aiki, a zafin ɗaki).

kimanta kawaima’aunin log: duk kwamfutocin yau → inji mai girman sararin samaniya

kimanta kawaikaso na lissafin da ke zuwa abu maimakon hankula

zato kawaikaso na nauyin da aka lissafa a cikakken ƙasa

zato kawaihankulan da aka lissafa gaba ɗaya cikin duk rayuwar ciki

kimanta kawaikaso na abin da ya wuce da aka yi rikodinsa kawai, ba a tafiyar da shi ba

Saiti · Tushe

Duniya, zarra bayan zarra, kowa ɗan wasa na gaske, hankula na aiki, lokaci ɗaya tun 1900. Ya fi abin da kwamfutocin yau za su iya tafiyarwa nesa ba kusa ba, amma cikin iyakokin zahiri. Canja maɓalli ɗaya ka ga nawa yake ƙarawa a jimillar.

Wane maɓalli ne ke canja jimillar fiye da kowanne?
Waɗanne zato ne ke da muhimmanci, kuma waɗanne ne da ƙyar suke yin tasiri?

01 · Girma

Nawa ne daga duniya ake lissafawa?Girman sararin da kwaikwayon ya rufe.

02 · Ƙasan abu

Har ina abu yake zurfafa?Ƙaramin abu da ake bin diddiginsa.

Zarra

kimanta kawai

Molecular dynamics na gargajiya na kowane zarra. Sinadari maras amsawa yana fitowa daidai. Ƙullawa da warware ƙulli na buƙatar hanyoyin quantum, wanda wannan mataki ba ya ƙirgawa. Duk abin da ya fi zarra ƙanƙanta ba a yi masa samfuri ba.

Ana bin diddigin kowace zarra ita kaɗai, da kimiyyar lissafi ta gargajiya.

saitin zanecikakken yanayin quantum

Raka’a, kowane 1 fs, matakin MD na kowane zarra na yau da kullum1.3 × 10⁵⁰

Jimillar lissafi a wannan ƙasa1.3 × 10⁶⁸ FLOPS

03 · Falo da rayuwar ciki

Wane ne na gaske?Hankula nawa ake lissafawa gaba ɗaya.

A ina iyakar rayuwar ciki take?Tsawo a kan tsani, ba jerin wanda ba na gaske ba.

Ɗan Adam zuwa sama

an auna

Mutane kaɗai. Wannan shi ne iyaka mafi taka-tsantsan bisa nau’in halitta. Ba iyaka ba ce bisa yawan jijiyoyi. Giwaye da wasu whales suna da jijiyoyi da yawa gabaɗaya, galibi a cerebellum, kuma ba matakai ba ne a nan.

komaibabu kowa

An ƙidaya na gaskeBiliyan 8.2

An bar su a matsayin ado4.5 × 10^20

Wannan ba ya faɗin waɗanne halittu ɗaiɗai ne ke da rayuwar ciki. Wurin yanke ne a kan tsanin halittu.

04 · Samfurin hankali

Nawa ne kowane hankali yake samu a ciki?Yaya cikakken samfurin kowace kwakwalwa yake.

05 · Kallo

Me ke faruwa a inda babu mai kallo?Nawa ne daga duniya ake lissafawa cikakke.

Komai, kullum

Cikakken bayani a ko’ina, ko da wani yana kallo ko babu. Wannan yana ɗaukar lissafi mafi yawa.

idan an dubakullum

Hankula Biliyan 8.2 suna kallo1.4 × 10^-6%

An lissafa a zahiri100%

Lissafin da ake buƙata1.3 × 10⁶⁸ FLOPS

06 · Lokaci

Yaya lokaci yake aiki a nan?Siffar tarihin da ake kwaikwayo.

Yaushe lissafin yake farawa?Tarihin kafin wannan lokaci an adana shi, ba a lissafa shi ba.

1900

kimanta kawai

Lokaci na kusa sosai, har burbushin halittu da ma’ajiya rikodi ne da aka adana, ba tarihin da aka lissafa ba.

fashewar farkoa yanzu

Shekara

Tarihin da aka adana kawai99.9999991%

Mutane suna nan tun farko da abubuwan tunawa da aka riga aka sanya musuBiliyan 1.6

07 · Wahala

Zai iya ji ciwo?Ko an haɗa da wahala.

Wannan maɓalli saitin samfuri ne. Ba hanya ce ta gane wanda na gaske ba. Rayuwa mai wahala ba ta gaya maka komai game da mai yin ta. Yana canja ma’aunin ɗabi’a kuma ba ya ƙara FLOPs.

08 · ’Yancin zaɓi

Wane irin ’yancin zaɓi?Abin da ke haddasa zaɓinmu.

Wannan maɓalli saitin ɗabi’a ne. Yana canja ma’aunin ɗabi’a kuma ba ya ƙara FLOPs.

09 · Wuri

MatsayinkaBayani a kan takardar sakamako. Ba ya canja lissafin da ake buƙata.

Girman kwamfutana littafi

10²¹ × Rana ta chips masu iyakar Landauer

Duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa, a ƙasan zafi na bit ɗaya da aka goge a kowane aiki, a yanayin ɗaki.

A iyakar Lloyd, wannan yana ɗaukar tan Triliyan 246.3 na abu, duka yana lissafi.

Yiwuwar aiwatarwa

Fiye da duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa

Fiye da ƙarfin da Rana ke fitarwa, ko da dabarar lissafi ta yau da kullum a ƙasan zafi.

Kwamfutocin sararin samaniyana littafi

1.6 × 10^-36

Kwamfutar sararin samaniya ɗaya ita ce kowace kilogram a sararin samaniyar da ake iya gani tana lissafi a iyakar Lloyd.

Amfanin wuta, ƙasan Landauerna littafi

Rana 10²¹

Mafi ƙarancin da thermodynamics ya yarda don jujjuya bits a zafin ɗaki. Mafi kyawun kayan aiki na gaske yana amfani da ƙarfi fiye da wannan sau kusan Biliyan 5.

Ƙarfin Rana 10²¹ a ƙasan Landauer, idan chips cikakku ne. Mafi kyawun chips na gaske suna amfani da ƙarfi fiye da haka sau kusan Biliyan 5.

A kan kowace kwamfuta a duniyakimanta kawai

shekaru 4.2 × 10³⁹ a daƙiƙa

Tsawon lokacin da ake ɗauka, a agogo, kafin duk kwamfutocin bil’adama su lissafa daƙiƙa ɗaya na kwaikwayo, ~10²¹ FLOPS.

Shekarun sararin samaniya 3.1 × 10²⁹, a kan duk lissafin Duniya, ga kowace daƙiƙa da aka kwaikwayo.

Duniyar da aka lissafa a zahirizato kawai

100%

1.4 × 10^-6% na nauyin ana kallonsa ta masu kallo Biliyan 8.2. Maɓallin kallo yana tantance yawan ragowar da ake lissafa a cikakken ƙasan.

Yaya wannan lamba take da saurin canzawa?

Idan an canja shigarwa masu alama kawai, cikin kowane goma takwas suna tsakanin 3.2 × 10⁶⁷ da 5.7 × 10⁶⁸ FLOPS (−0.6 zuwa +0.6 matakan girma kusa da lambar da aka nuna). Wannan ma’aunin saurin canzawa ne, ba yiwuwar abu game da duniya ba.

Lissafi ga kowane ɓangaren abu, ƙasan zarra kimanta kawai−0.6 zuwa +0.6

Babu tasiri a waɗannan saiti: nauyin lissafin bangon zane ga kowane mai kallo.

Kowace shigarwa an jujjuya ita kaɗai a cikin tazararta ta 80%; matakan girma nawa take motsa jimillar. Yaɗuwa (karkacewar ma’auni ɗaya) bisa alama: an auna ±12%, na littafi ±41%, kimanta kawai ×3.2, zato kawai ×10. Ana saita yaɗuwar bisa alama, ba a auna ta ga kowace shigarwa ba. Saitin maɓalli zaɓi ne, ba kimanta ba, kuma ba shi da yaɗuwa. Ba a cikin tazarar kwata-kwata: zaɓin girman hatsi, masu aiki na gargajiya da na quantum, taswirar aiki ɗaya ga kowane FLOP, ƙwaƙwalwa, da lissafi mai juyawa.

Ta fuskar ɗan Adam

Ƙarfi a kan mafi kyawun chips na yau an auna1.8 × 10⁵⁷ W, sau 5.2 × 10⁴⁴ wutar lantarkin duniya

Na’urorin saurin AI na yanzu kimanta kawai1.3 × 10⁵³, a kusan 10¹⁵ ayyuka a daƙiƙa kowanne

Farashin kayan aiki kimanta kawai$4.0 × 10⁵⁷, sau 3.6 × 10⁴³ na abin da duniya ke samarwa a shekara

Wutar lantarki, a shekara kimanta kawai$1.6 × 10⁵⁷ a $0.10 ga kowace kilowatt-hour

Nau’in Kardashev na littafi5.1, bayan nau’i na III, saman ma’aunin (bil’adama kusan 0.7 ne; nau’i na I yana mulkin ƙarfin duniya, na II na tauraro, na III na galaxy)

Farashin yana ɗaukar kusan $30,000 ga kowace na’urar sauri. Waɗannan lambobi na tafiyar da shi ne da fasahar yau. Iyakokin zahiri suna a cikin akwatunan da ke sama.

Taswirar misali

Nunin gaskiya

Sarƙaƙiyar lissafi

Rabon sani

Jadawalin sani

Rassan multiverse

Lokaci ɗaya, yanayi ɗaya, jimilla ɗaya.

Koma baya mara iyaka

Kwamfutar da aka kwaikwayo ba za ta fi duniyar da take gudana a cikinta lissafi ba. Idan kowace duniya tana ba ta gaba 1% na lissafinta, jerin yana zurfin matakai 27 kafin na ciki-ciki ya gudana a kwamfutar ɗauka. Gina jeri.

Tasirin mai kallo

Abin da ke wanzuwa (abu, ma’aunin log)100%

Abin da ke samun cikakken ƙasa100%

Abin da wani hankali yake kallo1.4 × 10^-6%

Sandunan suna a ma’aunin log daga 10⁻⁴⁰ zuwa 1, saboda a ma’auni na layi sandunan ƙanana ba za a gan su ba. Ana lissafa abin da wani yake kallo cikakke. Abin da babu mai kallo za a iya riƙe shi a matsayin ƙimomin da aka adana.

Matsalar uku ta Bostrom

Lissafin Bostrom, da aka yi amfani da shi a wannan yanayi a matsayin duniyar da ake kwaikwayo. Wayewa ta balaga da ke lissafi da kwamfuta ta ƙololuwa mai nauyin Duniya tana tafiyar da kwafi 2.4 × 10⁷ nata a lokaci guda. Kai ne ke saita sauran kaso biyu.

Wayewa ta balaga tana lissafi da Wayewa da ke ƙarewa kafin ta iya gina wannan: 50%Wayewa balagaggu da ke ƙin tafiyar da irin waɗannan kwaikwayo: 50% Kowace wayewa da ta rage tana tafiyar da kwafi gwargwadon abin da kwamfutarta ke iya tafiyarwa

Lissafi ne, ba hukunci ba. Kai ne ke saita kaso biyu. Adadin kwafi yana fitowa daga ƙarfin lissafin da wannan duniya ke ɗauka da kwamfutar da ka zaɓa. Sanda na uku yana biyo bayan duka ukun.

Hukunci, ba aunawa ba

Waɗannan allunan suna duba saitin ta fuskar tsarin ɗabi’a. Hukuncin marubuci ne, ba aunawa ba, kuma babu ɗayansu da ke canja jimillar lissafin da ke sama.

Taswirar sakamakon ɗabi’a

Makarantu huɗu

Axis	Fa’ida	Doka	Kirki	Wanzuwa.
Wahala	?	?	✓	✓
Rayuwar ciki	✓	✓	✓	✓
’Yancin zaɓi	?	?	?	✗
Nauyin sakamako	?	?	✓	✓
Gaskiya	?	?	✓	?
✓ ya karkata ga · ? ya rarrabu · ✗ ya karkata gāba da. Kowane ginshiƙi samfuri ne mai sauƙi na makaranta, ba hukunci ba.

Nauyin ɗabi’a

Hankula na gaske86%

Haruffan rubutu0%

Dabbobi masu rayuwar ciki0%

Ado5%

Mai tafiyarwa9%

Nauyin ɗabi’a yana tafiya da logarithm na yawan hankula da kuma yadda rayuwar cikin kowane hankali take da wadata. Samfuri ne mai sauƙi.

Kasancewar wahala

A kashe
Ƙarar baya
Yadda aka same shimatakin da muke gani
An ɗaga

Yadda aka same shi. Adadin da ake ganin yana wanzuwa: cuta, baƙin ciki da sauran. Wannan shi ne tushe.

Ya ƙunshi: cuta, baƙin ciki, yunwa, gundura
Dalili: ba a bayar da wani ba; wannan shi ne tushen da muke gani

Yadda kowace makaranta ke hukunta wannan matakin wahala

Mai amfani da fa’idaya rarrabu
Mai bin dokaya rarrabu
Ɗabi’ar kirkiya karkata ga
Mai wanzuwaya karkata ga

Saitin samfuri. Ba hanya ce ta gane wanda na gaske ba.

Tangarɗa a wannan tsari

Abin da ya wuce wanda ba a taɓa lissafa shi ba

An riga an sanya burbushin halittu, hotuna da abubuwan tunawa, don haka abin da ya wuce tarin rikodin da aka adana ne, ba tarihin da aka lissafa ba.

→ Mayar da ranar farawa zuwa lokaci na can baya, har sai abubuwan tunawa sun koma ga abubuwan da aka lissafa da gaske.

Takardar sakamako

Rahoton misali
DUNIYA DA AKA FARA KWANAN NAN

Saiti

GirmaDuniya

Ƙasan abuZarra

Falo’Yan wasa da yawa

Rayuwar cikiBiliyan 8.2 · na aiki

An lissafa100%

LokaciMadaidaici, kai tsaye daga 1900

Lissafin da ake buƙata

1.3 × 10⁶⁸ FLOPS

Girman kwamfuta10²¹ × Rana ta chips masu iyakar Landauer

Kwamfutocin sararin samaniya1.6 × 10^-36

Yiwuwar aiwatarwaFiye da duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa

Hukunci, ba aunawa ba

Fahimtar marubuci. Babu ɗayansu da ke canja jimillar lissafi.

WahalaYadda aka same shi

’Yancin zaɓiYana jin ’yanci

Mai amfani da fa’idaya rarrabu

Mai bin dokaya karkata ga

Ɗabi’ar kirkiya karkata ga

Mai wanzuwaya rarrabu

“An lissafa Duniya a ƙuduri zarra: FLOPS 1.3 × 10^68, ko 10²¹ × Rana ta chips masu iyakar Landauer.”

Biyu daga cikin waɗannan kimanta ne kawai, uku kuma zato ne kawai, kuma an yi wa kowanne alama haka. Canja kowane maɓalli ɗaya za ka sami wani sararin samaniya daban.

Tsarin hanyar haɗi

Duk yanayin wannan shafi yana cikin hanyar haɗinsa, don haka mutum, rubutaccen shiri ko wakili zai iya rubuta hanyar haɗi. Sigogi ga /sandbox:

sc: girman fannin da aka kwaikwaya. brain, room, earth, solar, galaxy, universe
fi: ƙasan abu, mafi laushin matakin da ake lissafawa. 0 painted, 1 organ, 2 tissue, 3 cell, 4 organelle, 5 protein, 6 molecule, 7 atom, 8 particle, 9 quark, 10 qfield, 11 qfull
lb: wane ne na gaske. single, multi, npc
co: iyakar rayuwar ciki: waɗanne halittu ne ke da ƙwarewa. 0 komai, 1 fly zuwa sama, 2 insect zuwa sama, 3 fish zuwa sama, 4 frog zuwa sama, 5 mouse zuwa sama, 6 bird zuwa sama, 7 pig zuwa sama, 8 dog zuwa sama, 9 dolphin zuwa sama, 10 human zuwa sama, 11 babu kowa
mm: yadda ake lissafa hankali. scripted, functional, biophysical, molecular, quantum, outside
ob: kashi na duniyar da aka nuna cikakke. lamba cikakkiya 0 zuwa 100
tm: samfurin lokaci. linear, cyclic, tree, manyworlds
sy: shekarar farkon kwaikwayon. lamba cikakkiya, -13800000000 zuwa 2026
su: maɓallin wahala. off, low, natural, high
fw: ’yancin zaɓi. determined, dice, libertarian, illusion
sl: zaɓi: wurin baƙo. player, npc, operator
pl: zaɓi: adadin ’yan wasa na gaske. lamba cikakkiya 1 zuwa 1000000000000000

Misali: https://simulation-hypothesis.com/sandbox?sc=earth&fi=7&lb=multi&co=10&mm=functional&ob=100&tm=linear&sy=1900&su=natural&fw=illusion. Iri ɗaya ne ga kowane kayan aiki, da buɗaɗɗen bayanan shafin, a /llms.txt.

Kwatanta da ambata

Har duniyoyi 3, a wannan burauzar kaɗai.

Lissafin abukimanta kawai

1.3 × 10⁶⁸ FLOPS

Raka’o’i 1.3 × 10⁵⁰ masu girman zarra a cikin Duniya, kowacce ana sabunta ta kowane 1 fs.

Lissafin hankalikimanta kawai

yana tafiya tare kyauta

A ƙasan zarra, ana lissafa kwakwalwa tuni a matsayin abu. Su kaɗai za su ɗauki 8.2 × 10²⁷.

A wannan ƙasan abu kwakwalwa an riga an lissafa su a matsayin abu, don haka hankula ba sa ƙara komai a jimillar.

Rayuwar cikizato kawai

Biliyan 8.2

Hankula Biliyan 8.2 na gaske. Halittu 4.5 × 10²⁰ da aka bari a matsayin ado.

Ayyukan da aka yi zuwa yanzukimanta kawai

5.3 × 10⁷⁷

shekaru 126 a agogo, a 1.3 × 10⁶⁸ a daƙiƙa.

Tarihin da aka adana kawaikimanta kawai

99.9999991%

An fara lissafi a shekarar 1900. Mutane Biliyan 1.6 suna nan a farko, da ƙwaƙwalwar da aka riga aka sanya.