Ƙirgen lokaci · lokacin da kwamfutocinmu za su iya tafiyar da kowane kwaikwayo

Kowane yanayi a filin gwaji yana buƙatar wasu ayyuka a daƙiƙa. Kwamfutocin bil’adama suna taruwa a jimilla. Wannan shafi yana sanya biyun a zane ɗaya. Muna auna zuwa yanzu, sannan mu yi hasashen yanayi uku da ke daidaitawa yayin da suka kai iyakokin zahiri. Misali ne da aka gina a kan bayanan da aka auna, ba hasashe ba. Yanayi ukun namu ne, kuma kowace shekara da ke ƙasa tana nufin “idan ƙaruwar ta tsaya a wannan gudu”.

Bil’adama yana lissafikusan 10²¹ayyuka a daƙiƙa, duk kayan aikin duniya kimanta kawai

Layin ƙarshe na gaba~2050Sabar 2050, 1.8 × 10²⁴, idan ƙaruwar ta tsaya daidai zato kawai

Duniya, zarra bayan zarra1.3 × 10⁴⁷ ×fiye da kowane lissafi da ke akwai kimanta kawai

Chips a kan ƙasa4.7 × 10⁹ ×mafi kyawun kayan aikin yau, sama da iyakar Landauer na littafi

Ketarewa

Layuka marasa yankewa an auna su. Layuka masu zari-zari yanayi uku ne. Kowanne yana ƙaruwa a gudu daidai yayin da yake nesa da rufinsa, sannan ya daidaita yayin da ya kusa, kamar ƙaruwar logistic. Kowane ɓangare yana nuna yanayi iri ɗaya da ƙaruwa ƙasa da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar da sama da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar. Wannan yaɗuwa na son rai ne. Ba ƙimar yiwuwa ba ce. Inda layin zari-zari ya ketare layin ƙarshe, wannan ita ce shekarar da kwamfutocinmu za su iya tafiyar da shi, idan wayewa ta jefa cikakken ƙarfinta cikin aikin. Yanayin da ke wuce wutar lantarkin yau kuma suna ɗauka ƙarfi ga kowane aiki yana ci gaba da raguwa zuwa ƙasan zafi. Mafi kyawun chips da ƙyar suka inganta tun 2022, don haka wannan shi ne zato mafi rauni a shafin.

Ƙaruwa: 35% a shekaraHar zuwa

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Mafi saurin inji ɗaya	Duk kwamfutocin bil’adama	Da sauri	Tsayayye	Ya tsaya
1946	5.0 × 10² FLOPS
1964	3.0 × 10⁶ FLOPS
1976	1.6 × 10⁸ FLOPS
1986		3.0 × 10¹⁴ FLOPS
1993	6.0 × 10¹⁰ FLOPS	4.4 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS
1997	1.3 × 10¹² FLOPS
2000		2.9 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS
2002	3.6 × 10¹³ FLOPS
2007		6.4 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2008	1.1 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS
2011	1.1 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS
2013	3.4 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS
2016	9.3 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS
2018	1.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS
2020	4.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS
2022	1.1 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2024	1.7 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2025		10²¹ FLOPS	10²¹ FLOPS	10²¹ FLOPS	10²¹ FLOPS
2026	2.2 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2050			1.3 × 10²⁶ FLOPS	1.8 × 10²⁴ FLOPS	7.0 × 10²² FLOPS
2075			1.6 × 10³¹ FLOPS	3.3 × 10²⁷ FLOPS	2.5 × 10²³ FLOPS
2100			2.0 × 10³⁶ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁰ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2125			2.6 × 10⁴¹ FLOPS	1.1 × 10³⁴ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2150			2.6 × 10⁴⁶ FLOPS	5.8 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2175			1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2200			1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2225			1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2250			1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2275			1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS
2300			1.3 × 10⁴⁷ FLOPS	6.0 × 10³⁵ FLOPS	2.6 × 10²³ FLOPS

Da sauri. Ƙarin lissafi 60% kowace shekara, gudun 1990s, har sai wata wayewa a bayan Duniya ta yi amfani da abin da Rana ke fitarwa. zato kawai
Tsayayye. 35% a shekara, kusan shekaru ashirin da suka gabata, har sai kayan aiki sun kai ƙasan zafi kuma ɗan ƙaramin ɓangare na hasken Duniya ya tafi lissafi. zato kawai
Ya tsaya. 20% a shekara ba tare da sabuwar hanyar samar da ƙarfi ba. Lissafi yana ƙaruwa har sai ya yi amfani da duk wutar lantarki a ingancin yau. zato kawai

Layin ƙarshe	Lissafin da ake buƙata	Da sauri	Tsayayye	Ya tsaya
Kwakwalwa a Cikin Tulu Ainihin kwakwalwa a ainihin gaskiya. Duniyarta kawai aka lissafa, sauran kowa na rubutu.	8.2 × 10¹⁵	tuni	tuni	tuni
Solipsism Hankali ɗaya na gaske. Duniya tana da cikakken bayani gwargwadon abin da wannan hankali zai iya gwadawa kawai.	10¹⁸	tuni	tuni	tuni
Rayuwa Bayan Mutuwa Duniya babu wahala, ana lissafa ta kawai idan wani yana nan.	10¹⁸	tuni	tuni	tuni
Sabar 2050 Kowa a duniya, da hankula na gaske kawai gwargwadon abin da kwamfutocin 2050 za su iya tafiyarwa.	1.8 × 10²⁴	2039–2044	2046–2055	ba za a taɓa ba
Kowane mai rai, a matsayin hankula Hankula biliyan takwas, suna aiki a matakin aiki, kuma babu muhallin da aka kwaikwaya.	8.2 × 10²⁷	2054–2066	2070–2089	ba za a taɓa ba
Matrix Duniya ta yau da biliyoyin cikakkun hankula da aka lissafa, ana zanawa kawai a inda wani yake kallo.	8.2 × 10³¹	2071–2089	2097–2127	ba za a taɓa ba
Duniya, zarra bayan zarra, tun 1900 Duniya zarra bayan zarra tun 1900, a matsayin wurin farawa don canja maɓalli ɗaya a lokaci guda.	1.3 × 10⁶⁸	ba za a taɓa ba	ba za a taɓa ba	ba za a taɓa ba
Sararin Samaniya na Kusa Milky Way a ƙudurin zarra, daga Fashewar Farko.	7.0 × 10⁸⁵	ba za a taɓa ba	ba za a taɓa ba	ba za a taɓa ba
Sararin Samaniya Mai Sauƙi Sararin samaniyar da ake iya gani a ƙudurin ƙwayar zarra ta halitta, an bar rabinsa.	5.8 × 10⁹¹	ba za a taɓa ba	ba za a taɓa ba	ba za a taɓa ba

A ƙarfin tauraro ɗaya, da dabarar lissafi ta yau da kullum da ke goge bit a kowane aiki a yanayin ɗaki, ba za mu taɓa samun isasshen lissafi don tafiyar da cikakkiyar duniya ba. Lissafi mai juyawa da wurin sanyaya mai sanyi zai rage wannan ƙasa. Ba ma ƙirga su a nan. Bayan layin Rana, hanya ɗaya tilo ta samun isasshe ita ce juya abu kansa ya zama kwamfuta kusa da iyakar Lloyd. Wannan iyakar rufi ce ga abu mai zafi kamar plasma, ba ga wani abu kamar dutse ba. Ga ayyukan kawai, Duniya zarra bayan zarra tana buƙatar aƙalla 2.5 × 10¹⁷ kg. Wannan ya fi Duniya ƙanƙanta sau miliyan 24. Adana yanayinta yana buƙatar aƙalla bits 5 × 10⁵², kuma hakan yana buƙatar abu da yawa fiye da haka (fiye da 10¹⁸ kg ko a iyakar black-hole). Hujjar Bostrom tana ɗauka wayewar bayan-ɗan-Adam da za su iya gina kwamfutoci irin haka. Shi ya sa tana game da su ba mu ba.

Abubuwan da ke tuƙa ƙaruwa

Injuna

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Mafi saurin inji ɗaya	Duk kwamfutocin duniya
1946	5.0 × 10² FLOPS
1964	3.0 × 10⁶ FLOPS
1976	1.6 × 10⁸ FLOPS
1986		3.0 × 10¹⁴ FLOPS
1993	6.0 × 10¹⁰ FLOPS	4.4 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS
1997	1.3 × 10¹² FLOPS
2000		2.9 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS
2002	3.6 × 10¹³ FLOPS
2007		6.4 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2008	1.1 × 10¹⁵ FLOPS
2011	1.1 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS
2013	3.4 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS
2016	9.3 × 10¹⁶ FLOPS
2018	1.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS
2020	4.4 × 10¹⁷ FLOPS
2022	1.1 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2024	1.7 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS
2025		10²¹ FLOPS
2026	2.2 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS

Shekaru saba’in da tara, matakan girma goma sha biyar: kusan ninki dubu ɗaya kowace shekaru goma sha biyar. an auna Tushe: jerin TOP500 sau biyu a shekara (an auna a kan Linpack benchmark) daga 1993, na baya-bayan nan Yuni 2026; lambobin mafi girma daga tarihin injuna kafin hakan, kuma na 1946 kimanta ne.

Kowane processor, an haɗa su. Ba a maimaita ƙidayar 2011 ba, don haka ɓangaren ƙarshe layi madaidaici ne zuwa anka na kimanta. Yana ƙirga umarni na gama-gari, kamar yadda ƙidayar ta yi. Chips na AI kaɗai sun kai kusan ayyuka 4 × 10^21 a ƙaramin daidaito a daƙiƙa a ƙarshen 2024; waɗannan raka’a ce mafi ƙanƙanta, kuma ƙara su zai ɗaga jimilla da kusan ninki biyar kuma ya kawo kowane ketarewa na ƙaruwa daidai gaba da kusan shekaru biyar. kimanta kawai Tushe: Hilbert & López, “The World’s Technological Capacity to Store, Communicate, and Compute Information”, Science 332 (2011), suna ƙirga umarni ɗaya a matsayin aiki ɗaya; ma’aunin 2025 anka ne na matakin girma na shafin kansa.

Ƙarfi ga kowane aiki

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Ƙarfi ga kowane aiki, mafi kyawun inji
1946	3.0 × 10² J
1964	10⁻² J
1976	7.0 × 10⁻⁴ J
2008	1.9 × 10⁻⁹ J
2012	4.0 × 10⁻¹⁰ J
2016	1.1 × 10⁻¹⁰ J
2020	3.8 × 10⁻¹¹ J
2022	1.5 × 10⁻¹¹ J
2024	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ J
2025	1.4 × 10⁻¹¹ J

Joules da ake kashewa ga kowane aiki ya faɗi da ninki tiriliyan ashirin. Jan layi shi ne ƙasan da kimiyyar lissafi ta ba da dama a yanayin ɗaki; mafi kyawun chips har yanzu suna sama da shi sau kusan Biliyan 5. an auna Tushe: jerin Green500 na manyan kwamfutoci masu inganci a ƙarfi daga 2008 (jerin Nuwamba, har zuwa ayyuka biliyan 73.3 ga kowane watt a 2025); kusan ƙarfi da gudu daga tarihin injuna kafin hakan. Koomey et al. (2011) sun auna ninki a kowace shekaru 1.57 daga 1946 zuwa 2009.

Transistors a chip ɗaya

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Transistors a chip ɗaya
1971	2.3 × 10³
1978	2.9 × 10⁴
1985	2.8 × 10⁵
1989	1.2 × 10⁶
1993	3.1 × 10⁶
2000	4.2 × 10⁷
2010	3.0 × 10⁹
2016	1.5 × 10¹⁰
2020	5.4 × 10¹⁰
2022	8.0 × 10¹⁰
2024	2.1 × 10¹¹

Ninkin Moore na 1965, har yanzu kusan a kan lokaci, yanzu ta hanyar haɗa dies biyu a fakiti ɗaya. Chips da aka yi daga cikakken wafer sun kai tiriliyan huɗu a 2024; an bar su domin ba daidai ake kwatantawa ba. an auna Tushe: ƙidayar masu ƙera da aka buga don mafi girman chip ko fakiti na kowace shekara.

Mafi girman horon AI

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Mafi girman horon AI
2012	ayyuka 6.0 × 10¹⁷
2015	ayyuka 4.0 × 10²⁰
2017	ayyuka 8.0 × 10²⁰
2020	ayyuka 3.0 × 10²³
2022	ayyuka 3.0 × 10²⁴
2023	ayyuka 2.0 × 10²⁵
2024	ayyuka 4.0 × 10²⁵
2025	ayyuka 4.0 × 10²⁶
2026	ayyuka 10²⁷

Jimillar ayyukan da aka kashe a babbar horarwa ta kowace shekara, tana ƙaruwa sau huɗu zuwa biyar a shekara tun 2010. Layuka masu launin toka jimillar iri ɗaya ce da aka ƙirga a shekarun kwakwalwar ɗan Adam ɗaya a ƙimar aiki: rikodin 2025 kusan shekarun kwakwalwa dozin ɗaya ne. kimanta kawai Tushe: Bayanan Epoch AI kan manyan samfuran AI (kiyasi, an zagaye zuwa lamba ɗaya; 2026 na farko ne); ƙimar ƙaruwa daga Sevilla da Roldán (2024).

Algorithms

Gane hoto44 ×ƙarancin lissafi don sakamako ɗaya, 2012 zuwa 2019 an auna

Samfuran harshe½lissafin don sakamako ɗaya, kusan kowane watanni 8 kimanta kawai

Kayan aiki wani ɓangare ne kawai na yanayin. Mafi kyawun algorithms suna rage ayyukan da aiki ke buƙata kowace shekara, don haka yanayin da ke sama na iya zama ƙasa da ainihin ƙaruwa. Tushe: Hernandez & Brown (2020); Ho et al. (2024).

Wutar lantarki ga cibiyoyin bayanai

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Wutar lantarkin cibiyar bayanai	Wutar lantarkin cibiyar bayanai, an yi hasashe
2010	194 TWh
2015	200 TWh
2018	205 TWh
2020	270 TWh
2024	415 TWh
2025	485 TWh	485 TWh
2030		945 TWh

Terawatt-hours a shekara. Tsayayye na shekaru goma yayin da chips suka inganta, sannan AI ya lanƙwasa shi sama; ɓangaren zari-zari shi ne tushen hukumar. Duk duniya ta yi amfani da kusan terawatt-hours 29,000 a 2024. kimanta kawai Tushe: Masanet et al., Science 367 (2020), na 2010 zuwa 2018; International Energy Agency, “Energy and AI” (2025), na 2020 zuwa gaba da hasashen 2030.

Kwakwalwa, an zana taswirarsu kuma an gudanar da su

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	An zana taswira, kowace synapse	An kwaikwaya, an sauƙaƙa
1986	jijiyoyi 3.0 × 10²
2013		jijiyoyi 1.7 × 10⁹
2023	jijiyoyi 3.0 × 10³
2024	jijiyoyi 1.4 × 10⁵	jijiyoyi 8.6 × 10¹⁰

An zana taswira yana nufin kowace jijiya da synapse an bi ta daga ainihin nama: tsutsa, tsutsar kwari, kuda. Kwaikwayo auna ce daban: jijiyoyin samfuri biliyan 1.7 a 2013, kuma a 2024 gudu da raka’o’i masu yawa kamar kwakwalwar ɗan Adam, kowanne an sauƙaƙa zuwa ɗigo da zaton wayoyi. Layin sama kwakwalwar ɗan Adam ɗaya ce. Milimita cubic na ɗan Adam da bera (2024, 2025) ma an zana taswirarsu, amma gutsure ne, ba cikakkun kwakwalwa ba. an auna Tushe: White et al. (1986), tsutsa; Winding et al. (2023), tsutsar kuda; Dorkenwald et al. (2024), kuda babba. RIKEN da Jülich (2013) don gudun kwamfutar K; Fudan University (2024) don gudun girman ɗan Adam.

Abun ciki da inji ya samar

Kason sababbin abubuwa da inji ya yi

Babu wanda ya auna wannan ga duniya gaba ɗaya. Akwai jerin lokaci na gaske ɗaya, daga sabis ɗin kiɗa ɗaya da ke ƙirga abin da ake lodawa. Akwai kuma ƙidayoyi ɗaiɗai kaɗan, kowanne don nau’in abu ɗaya a wuri ɗaya. Ka ɗauke su a matsayin samfura.

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Kason sababbin lodin kiɗa da inji ya yi gaba ɗaya
Jan 2025	10%
Yun 2025	18%
Sat 2025	28%
Nuw 2025	34%
Jan 2026	39%
Afi 2026	44%
Yul 2026	50%

Kashi na sababbin waƙoƙin kowace rana. Ya wuce rabi a Yuli 2026. Maganar da ake ambata sosai ta “90% na abun cikin yanar gizo zai zama na roba nan da 2026” ba ta da tushen da za a bi, kuma ba a yi amfani da ita a nan ba. kimanta kawai Tushe: mai gano na wani babban sabis na kiɗa, daga sanarwarsa (Janairu 2025 zuwa Yuli 2026).

50%Sababbin labaran yanar gizo na Turanci da inji ya rubuta galibi · 2025 kimanta kawai Mai rarraba na kamfanin SEO da aka gudanar a kan samfurin yanar gizo buɗaɗɗe; tsayayye tun farkon 2025.

17%Sakamakon bincike 20 na sama da aka yi wa alama da inji ya rubuta · 2025 kimanta kawai Kayan aikin mai sayar da gano, bincike 500 a kan babbar injin bincike; ya kasance 7% a Maris 2024.

15%Rubuce-rubuce a babban shafin tattaunawa da wataƙila inji ya rubuta · 2025 kimanta kawai Wannan mai sayarwar ne; 13% shekarar da ta gabata.

3%Kunna waƙoƙin da inji ya yi gaba ɗaya a sabis ɗin da ke sama · 2026 kimanta kawai Sabis ɗin kansa: lodi suna ambaliya, sauraro ba ya biyo baya.

Sha’awa

Muna amfani da wakilai biyu na sha’awa. Ɗaya ziyarar labarin ƙamus ne ga kowane ra’ayi (Turanci, zirga-zirgar ɗan Adam kawai). Ɗayan sababbin takardun ilimi ne da ke amfani da kalmar. Kowane zane yana da ma’aunin kansa. Dige-dige marasa cika suna nuna shekarun da ba a kammala ba. Jerin takardun kansa ya girma da sauri a 2025 da 2026, don haka wani ɓangare na hawan ƙarshe aibin ƙirgawa ne, ba ƙaruwar fannin ba.

Hasashen kwaikwayo · ziyara

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Hasashen kwaikwayo · ziyara
2016	338,998
2017	300,904
2018	362,320
2019	453,578
2020	449,018
2021	479,322
2022	318,153
2023	338,869
2024	360,061
2025	347,213
2026	165,640

Ziyarar ƙamus a shekara. 2026 yana tafiya zuwa 2026-08.

Generative AI · ziyara

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Generative AI · ziyara
2023	561,844
2024	949,100
2025	939,238
2026	294,748

Ziyarar ƙamus a shekara. 2026 yana tafiya zuwa 2026-08.

Tagwayen dijital · ziyara

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Tagwayen dijital · ziyara
2017	51,601
2018	163,210
2019	224,792
2020	241,048
2021	270,726
2022	257,797
2023	204,803
2024	276,219
2025	176,899
2026	83,070

Ziyarar ƙamus a shekara. 2026 yana tafiya zuwa 2026-08.

Hasashen kwaikwayo · takardu

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Hasashen kwaikwayo · takardu
2003	2
2004	2
2005	3
2006	6
2007	8
2008	4
2009	5
2010	5
2011	10
2012	6
2013	11
2014	7
2015	9
2016	12
2017	12
2018	14
2019	22
2020	19
2021	27
2022	17
2023	29
2024	35
2025	92
2026	291

Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “simulation hypothesis” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani.

Tagwayen dijital · takardu

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Tagwayen dijital · takardu
2010	4
2011	3
2012	10
2013	5
2014	11
2015	13
2016	43
2017	129
2018	493
2019	1,301
2020	2,371
2021	4,228
2022	6,334
2023	9,513
2024	13,036
2025	22,180
2026	32,175

Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “digital twin” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani.

Samfuran duniya · takardu

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Samfuran duniya · takardu
2000	98
2001	157
2002	288
2003	214
2004	186
2005	227
2006	219
2007	204
2008	206
2009	246
2010	266
2011	264
2012	268
2013	257
2014	265
2015	283
2016	233
2017	266
2018	286
2019	299
2020	357
2021	357
2022	374
2023	533
2024	803
2025	1,744
2026	5,352

Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “world model” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani.

AI ya samar · takardu

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	AI ya samar · takardu
2010	1
2011	3
2012	1
2013	2
2014	1
2015	6
2016	8
2017	6
2018	24
2019	75
2020	140
2021	208
2022	295
2023	1,752
2024	4,867
2025	13,032
2026	22,260

Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “AI-generated” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani.

Bayanan roba · takardu

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Bayanan roba · takardu
2000	250
2001	283
2002	537
2003	524
2004	573
2005	637
2006	850
2007	875
2008	945
2009	1,028
2010	1,111
2011	1,253
2012	1,300
2013	1,422
2014	1,558
2015	1,620
2016	1,818
2017	2,001
2018	2,272
2019	2,772
2020	3,214
2021	3,913
2022	4,379
2023	5,402
2024	7,243
2025	10,796
2026	12,775

Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “synthetic data” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani.

Kwaikwayon kwakwalwa gaba ɗaya · takardu

Nuna lambobin

Shekara	Kwaikwayon kwakwalwa gaba ɗaya · takardu
2008	1
2010	1
2011	1
2012	7
2013	5
2014	3
2015	6
2016	2
2017	7
2018	6
2019	4
2020	3
2021	3
2022	7
2023	2
2024	7
2025	13
2026	47

Takardu a shekara da ke amfani da “whole brain emulation” a suna ko taƙaitaccen bayani.

Imani

Imani da hasashen kwaikwayo

Babu maimaita awo. Babu binciken jama’a, ko na kowace sana’a, da ya tambaya ko muna cikin kwaikwayo a shekaru biyu daban-daban. Don haka babu yanayi da za a zana, kuma wannan shafi bai zana ɗaya ba. an auna

Masana falsafa, 2020. Babban binciken ƙwararrun masana falsafa ba shi da tambaya game da kwaikwayo. Mafi kusa shi ne game da duniyar waje: 79.5% sun zaɓi realism mara shakka, wato tana wanzuwa kuma za mu iya saninta. Kwaikwayo mai kyau zai samu amsa iri ɗaya. an auna

Lambobi marasa tushe. Lambar “22% na manya” da tsofaffin da’awa game da zaɓen tashar talabijin ana maimaita su da yawa; babu ɗayansu da aka iya gano shi zuwa zaɓe na gaske, don haka ba a yi amfani da ɗaya ba. Zane-zanen sha’awa da ke sama suna tsayawa a matsayin wakilai: neman ra’ayin a bainar jama’a da wallafe-wallafen ilimi a kai. zato kawai

Yadda ake ƙirga wannan shafi

Yanayi shi ne lanƙwasar logistic da aka rubuta a log10: ƙaruwa r a shekara, tana daidaitawa zuwa rufi C. Daga 10²¹ a 2025, matakin a shekara t shi ne C − log₁₀(1 + (10^C−21 − 1) · (1 + r)^{−(t−2025)}).
Kowane rufi ƙarfin wuta ne ya ninka inganci: wutar lantarkin Duniya (kusan 3.5 × 10¹² W) a mafi kyawun na yau 7 × 10¹⁰ FLOPS ga kowane watt; 1% na hasken rana da ke isa Duniya, ko duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa, a iyakar Landauer (1 / 2.87 × 10⁻²¹ ayyuka ga kowane joule); nauyin Duniya a iyakar Lloyd.
Layukan ƙarshe saitunan filin gwaji ne, an auna su da injin iri ɗaya da sauran shafin. Hanyar aikin tana lissafa kowace madaidaiciyar lamba.
Aiki ɗaya, FLOP da bit da aka goge ana ƙirga su a matsayin raka’a ɗaya, kamar a sauran shafin. Wannan yana ƙara girman rufin fiye da kima da ninki na kusan 10³ zuwa 10⁴.

Tushe

Jerin TOP500 da Green500 (top500.org), Yuni 1993 zuwa Yuni 2026.
Hilbert & López, Science 332 (2011): lissafin gama-gari na duniya, 1986 zuwa 2007.
Koomey, Berard, Sanchez & Wong, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing (2011): lissafi ga kowace kilowatt-hour.
Epoch AI, bayanai kan manyan samfuran AI; Sevilla et al. (2022), “Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning”; Sevilla & Roldán (2024) kan sau 4 zuwa 5 a shekara.
Hernandez & Brown (2020): lissafi ƙasa da sau 44 don sakamakon gane hoto ɗaya, 2012 zuwa 2019. Ho et al. (2024): samfuran harshe suna buƙatar rabin lissafi don sakamako ɗaya kusan kowane watanni 8.
Masanet et al., Science 367 (2020); International Energy Agency, “Energy and AI” (2025).
White et al. (1986); Winding et al. (2023); Dorkenwald et al. (2024); Shapson-Coe et al. (2024); MICrONS consortium (2025).
Bourget & Chalmers, binciken PhilPapers na 2020.
An ɗauko bayanan sha’awa 2026-09-28 daga Wikimedia pageviews (Wikipedia na Turanci, zirga-zirgar ɗan Adam) da OpenAlex (binciken kalmar suna da taƙaitaccen bayani).

Tsarin hanyar haɗi

Duk yanayin wannan shafi yana cikin hanyar haɗinsa, don haka mutum, rubutaccen shiri ko wakili zai iya rubuta hanyar haɗi. Sigogi ga /countdown:

g: ƙaruwar lissafi ta shekara, a kashi. lamba cikakkiya 5 zuwa 100
c: rufin zahiri da ƙaruwar ke daidaitawa a kai. grid, sunlight, sun, earth-mass

Misali: https://simulation-hypothesis.com/countdown?g=35&c=sunlight. Iri ɗaya ne ga kowane kayan aiki, da buɗaɗɗen bayanan shafin, a /llms.txt.