Hanya · yadda ake ƙirga lissafi · sigar 2026.6
Kowace jimilla a shafin tana fitowa daga dabara ɗaya. Muna aiki a log10 don lambobi masu girman 10150 da 10(1080) su shiga:
FLOPS = units(scale, floor) × ops_per_unit(floor) / timestep(floor) × rendered_fraction
+ Σ minds × neurons × flops_per_neuron(model) (sai dai idan ƙasan abu ya shanye)
× time_multiplier(time model)
units nauyi / nauyin-hatsi, ko zarra, ko nucleons + electrons, ko 2^(ɓarbashi) ga cikakken wavefunction
rendered kaso na nauyin da ke samun cikakken ƙasa; sauran suna gudana a matsayin “saitin zane” a 10^13 FLOPS ga kowane mai kallo
absorbed a ƙasan ƙwayar zarra ta halitta ko mafi laushi, kwakwalwa tuni abu ne, don haka samfurin hankali ba ya ƙara komai
comparisons Iyakar Lloyd (5.4×10^50 ops/s/kg), iyakar Landauer (kT ln 2 a 300 K), duk kayan aikin Duniya (~10^21 FLOPS)- A kalmomi
- Ƙirga raka’o’in abu a ƙasan da ka zaɓa. Ninka da ayyukan da kowanne ke buƙata a kowane mataki, da matakai a daƙiƙa. Sannan ka riƙe kaso na duniya da ake nunawa kawai.
- Ƙara lissafin kwakwalwa ɗaya ga kowace rayuwar ciki. Banda shi ne ƙasan abu mai laushi da ya riga ya ƙunshi kwakwalwa. Sannan ba sa ƙara komai.
- Ninka da samfurin lokaci. Lokaci madaidaici wucewa ɗaya ne. Reshewa yana buƙatar ƙari, kuma duniyoyi da yawa yana buƙatar mafi yawa.
Alamomi suna nuna iyakar amincewar da za ka yi wa kowace shigarwa. an auna auna ce da aka buga. na littafi kimiyyar lissafi ce ta yau da kullum ko kiyasin da aka buga. kimanta kawai daidai ne cikin mataki ɗaya na girma. zato kawai riƙon wuri ne ba tare da wani abu na gwaji a bayansa ba, kuma muna yi masa lakabi haka.
Waɗannan kiyasi ƙananan iyaka ne ga ayyukan samfurin da ka zaɓa. Mun bar nauyin ƙari, gyaran kuskure, jinkiri, ƙwaƙwalwa da sadarwa. Ainihin gudun wannan samfuri zai buƙaci ƙarin lissafi. Giɓi ɗaya yana da muhimmanci ga yanayi masu ƙarancin lissafi. Duniya da ake nunawa kawai a inda wani yake kallo dole ta kasance daidai a duk lokacin da wani ya duba, a kowane matakin cikakken bayani. Ba mu auna abin da ake buƙata don tabbatar da hakan ba. Zaɓukan samfurin kansa, kamar hatsi, matakin lokaci da abin da ake nunawa ga kowane mai kallo, ba iyaka ba ne. Suna iya motsa jimilla ta kowane ɓangare.
Yanayi huɗu da aka lissafa da hannu, don ka duba lissafin ba tare da shafin ba. Kowane layi yana amfani da madaidaitan lambobi daga teburin da ke ƙasa kawai. A duk lokacin da aka gina shafin, injin yana gudanar da waɗannan yanayi iri ɗaya. Idan wata jimilla a nan ta saɓa da shi, shafin ba zai buga ba.
Duniya zarra bayan zarra
Duniya a ƙasan zarra, komai ana lissafawa kullum, kowane hankali na gaske.
| Abu | zarra 1.33×10⁵⁰ × ayyuka 1,000 ga kowace zarra a kowane mataki ÷ 10⁻¹⁵ s a kowane mataki | 1.3 × 1068 |
|---|---|---|
| Da hannu | layukan da ke sama, an haɗa su | 1.3 × 1068 FLOPS |
| Injin | injin shafin, yanayi iri ɗaya | 1.3 × 1068 FLOPS |
Hankula ba sa ƙara komai. A ƙasan zarra kwakwalwa an riga an lissafa ta a matsayin zarra da aka yi ta da ita, don haka tana cikin kalmar abu.
Kwakwalwa a cikin tulu
Ainihin kwakwalwa ɗaya a wajen kwaikwayon. Duk abin da take ji saitin zane ne, kuma sauran kowa na rubutu ne.
| Saitin zane | 10¹³ FLOPS ga kowane mai kallo × mai kallo 1 | 1013 |
|---|---|---|
| Haruffan rubutu | mutane 8,199,999,999 × 10⁶ FLOPS kowanne | 8.2 × 1015 |
| Kwakwalwar kanta | yana gudana a waje, don haka 0 | 0 |
| Da hannu | layukan da ke sama, an haɗa su | 8.2 × 1015 FLOPS |
| Injin | injin shafin, yanayi iri ɗaya | 8.2 × 1015 FLOPS |
Taron rubutu yana ɗaukar fiye da ninki 800 na lissafin da ado ke ɗauka. A duniya da aka nuna ga mutum ɗaya, sauran mutane su ne mafi yawan jimillar.
Solipsism
Kamar tulun, amma hankali ɗaya na gaske shi ma an kwaikwaye shi, a matsayin samfurin kwakwalwa na aiki.
| Saitin zane | 10¹³ FLOPS × mai kallo 1 | 1013 |
|---|---|---|
| Hankali ɗaya na gaske | 1 × 10¹⁸ FLOPS (samfurin aiki) | 1018 |
| Haruffan rubutu | 8,199,999,999 × 10⁶ FLOPS | 8.2 × 1015 |
| Da hannu | layukan da ke sama, an haɗa su | 1018 FLOPS |
| Injin | injin shafin, yanayi iri ɗaya | 1018 FLOPS |
Kwaikwayon hankali ɗaya yana ɗaukar kusan ninki 120 na lissafin sauran duniya gaba ɗaya.
Matrix
Duniya da aka zana, kowane mutum na gaske kuma an yi masa samfuri a matakin halittar jiki.
| Saitin zane | 10¹³ FLOPS ga kowane mai kallo × masu kallo 8.2×10⁹ | 8.2 × 1022 |
|---|---|---|
| Hankula | mutane 8.2×10⁹ × 10²² FLOPS kowanne (samfurin halittar jiki) | 8.2 × 1031 |
| Da hannu | layukan da ke sama, an haɗa su | 8.2 × 1031 FLOPS |
| Injin | injin shafin, yanayi iri ɗaya | 8.2 × 1031 FLOPS |
Hankula sun fi ado nauyi da biliyan ɗaya zuwa ɗaya. Ƙasan abu da ƙyar yake da muhimmanci a nan. Samfurin hankali ne ke saita jimillar.
| Anka | Ƙima | Amincewa | Tushe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iyakar Lloyd | 5.4 × 1050 ayyuka · s⁻¹ · kg⁻¹ | na littafi | Lloyd, “Ultimate physical limits to computation”, Nature 406 (2000). Rufin da ke kan kowane gungun abu da ake amfani da shi a matsayin kwamfuta. |
| Iyakar Landauer | 2.87 × 10-21 J ga kowane bit da aka goge a 300 K | na littafi | Landauer, IBM Journal of Research and Development 5 (1961): kT ln 2 a yanayin ɗaki. |
| Nauyin sararin samaniyar da ake iya gani | 1.5 × 1053 kg | kimanta kawai | Abu na yau da kullum kawai, an lissafa daga critical density da radius na shekarun haske biliyan 46. An bar dark matter da dark energy da gangan. |
| Shekarun sararin samaniya | 1.38 × 1010 shekaru | an auna | Sigogin sararin samaniya na Planck 2018. |
| Nauyin nucleon | 1.6726 × 10-27 kg | an auna | Nauyin proton na CODATA; ana ɗaukar neutrons iri ɗaya. |
| Abin da Rana ke fitarwa | 3.83 × 1026 W | an auna | Hasken Rana, ƙimar da IAU 2015 ta ƙayyade. |
| Duk lissafin da ke duniya | ~1021 FLOPS | kimanta kawai | Jimla ta kimanta ta cibiyoyin bayanai, kwamfutocin gida, wayoyi da na’urorin wasa a tsakiyar 2020s. Za ta iya kuskure da ninki 10 ta kowane gefe. |
| Jijiyoyi a kwakwalwar ɗan Adam | 8.6 × 1010 | an auna | Azevedo et al., Journal of Comparative Neurology 513 (2009). |
| Dabbobin duniya | ~4.5 × 1020 ɗaiɗaikun halittu | zato kawai | Galibi nematodes na ƙasa: van den Hoogen et al. (2019, Nature) sun ƙiyasta 4.4 × 10^20 a saman ƙasa. Kwari da sauran arthropods suna ƙarawa kusan 10^19. Ba a ƙirga nematodes na teku da sauran ƙananan dabbobi ba, don haka wannan mafi ƙaranci ne. Nematode yana da jijiyoyi kusan 300, don haka ƙidayar ba ta canja tsanin rayuwar ciki sosai ba, wanda ke farawa daga ƙudan ’ya’yan itace. |
| Abin da hankali ɗaya yake kallo | 107 kg | zato kawai | Nauyin kewaye ga kowane mai kallo, kusan gini. Wannan yana saita yawan abin da ake lissafawa daga duniya a cikakken ƙasan abu. |
| Lissafin saitin zane | 1013 FLOPS ga kowane mai kallo | zato kawai | Kusan injin nuna lokaci na gaske mai ƙololuwa ɗaya ga kowane mai kallo. Lissafin da ake buƙata don duniya da aka riƙe a matsayin tebur na neman bayani. |
| Matakin molecular-dynamics | ~103 FLOPs ga kowace zarra a kowane mataki | kimanta kawai | MD na kowane zarra da yankewar 1 nm: kowace zarra tana jin maƙwabta ɗari kaɗan, a FLOPs goma kaɗan kowanne. Shirye-shirye na gaske suna kusa da wannan cikin ninki kaɗan. |
| Aiki ɗaya | 1 aiki = 1 FLOP = bit 1 da aka goge | kimanta kawai | Lloyd yana ƙirga ayyukan dabara na asali, Landauer yana ƙirga gogewar bit, kuma jimillar tana ƙirga ayyukan floating-point. Shafin yana ɗaukar su raka’a ɗaya. Ainihin ninkin 64-bit dubban ayyukan ƙofa ne, don haka wannan yana sa rufin ya fi yadda yake kyau kuma yana nuna zafin ƙasa da yadda yake da ninki na kusan 10^3 zuwa 10^4. |
| Lissafin da samfuran hankali ke ɗauka | 106 zuwa 1049 FLOPS ga kowace kwakwalwar ɗan Adam | kimanta kawai | Sandberg & Bostrom, “Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap” (2008), matakai 4, 5 da 10. Matakan na rubutu da na quantum riƙon wuri ne na shafin kansa, kuma suna faɗa haka. |
| Girma | Nauyi | Zarra | Duniyoyi masu ɗauke da rayuwa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kwakwalwa ɗaya | 1.4 × 100 kg | 1.2 × 1026 | wannan, idan akwai an auna |
| Ɗaki ɗaya | 104 kg | 3.0 × 1029 | wannan, idan akwai kimanta kawai |
| Duniya | 6.0 × 1024 kg | 1.3 × 1050 | 100 an auna |
| Tsarin hasken rana | 2.0 × 1030 kg | 1.2 × 1057 | 100 kimanta kawai |
| Milky Way | 1.2 × 1041 kg | 7.0 × 1067 | 106 zato kawai |
| Sararin samaniyar da ake iya gani | 1.5 × 1053 kg | 1080 | 2.0 × 1017 zato kawai |
| Mataki | Raka’a | Ayyuka / raka’a / mataki | Matakin lokaci | Amincewa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saitin zane | tebur na neman bayani; 10¹³ ga kowane mai kallo | 1 | firam ɗaya a 60 Hz | zato kawai |
| Sassan jiki | nauyi / 1e-1 kg | 20 | 10 ms, don bugun zuciya ya sami firam ɗari | zato kawai |
| Nama | nauyi / 1e-3 kg | 50 | 1 ms | zato kawai |
| Ƙwayar halitta | nauyi / 1e-12 kg | 100 | 1 ms, ilimin halittar ƙwayar halitta yana tafiya a hankali | kimanta kawai |
| Organelle | nauyi / 1e-16 kg | 100 | 1 µs | kimanta kawai |
| Protein | nauyi / 1e-22 kg | 1000 | 1 ns, lokutan naɗewar protein | kimanta kawai |
| Ƙwayar zarra ta halitta | 0.5 × zarra | 1000 | 10 fs, MD mai ƙananan ƙungiyoyi | kimanta kawai |
| Zarra | 1 × zarra | 1000 | 1 fs, matakin MD na kowane zarra na yau da kullum | kimanta kawai |
| Ɓarbashi | 1 × nucleons + electrons | 100 | 1 as, motsin electron | kimanta kawai |
| Quark | 3 × nucleons + electrons | 1000 | 1 ys, lokutan ƙarfin nukiliya mai ƙarfi | zato kawai |
| Quantum, matsakaicin fili | (nucleons + electrons) × amplitudes 1e+9 | 10 | 1 as, matakin quantum mai dogaro da lokaci | kimanta kawai |
| Quantum, entanglement cikakke | 2^(nucleons + electrons) amplitudes | 10 | 1 as | na littafi |
Lambobin kowace kwakwalwa suna ƙaruwa bisa yawan jijiyoyi daga lambar ɗan Adam. Inda taswirar kwaikwayon kwakwalwa gaba ɗaya ta Sandberg & Bostrom ta 2008 take da mataki, wannan shi ne tushenmu.
| Samfuri | FLOPS / kwakwalwar ɗan Adam | Tushe |
|---|---|---|
| Na rubutu | 106 zato kawai | kusan abin da hali ɗaya na rubutu a wasa ke ɗauka na lissafi |
| Na aiki | 1018 kimanta kawai | Sandberg & Bostrom 2008, mataki na 4 |
| Na halittar jiki | 1022 kimanta kawai | Sandberg & Bostrom 2008, mataki na 5 |
| Na kwayoyin halitta | 1043 kimanta kawai | Sandberg & Bostrom 2008, mataki na 10 |
| Quantum | 1049 zato kawai | babu kiyasin da aka buga; Penrose & Hameroff don ra’ayin |
| Ainihin kwakwalwa, a waje | babu | babu, ta ma’ana: kwakwalwar tana aiki da jijiyoyinta, a wajen kwaikwayon |
| Matakin iyaka | Ɗaiɗaikun halittu a Duniya, wannan mataki da sama | Jijiyoyi kowanne | Amincewa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ƙudan ’ya’yan itace | 1019 | 1.4 × 105 | zato kawai |
| Kwaro | 1018 | 106 | zato kawai |
| Kifi | 3.5 × 1013 | 107 | zato kawai |
| Kwaɗo | 8.0 × 1011 | 1.6 × 107 | zato kawai |
| Bera | 2.2 × 1011 | 7.1 × 107 | kimanta kawai |
| Tsuntsu | 1.3 × 1011 | 109 | kimanta kawai |
| Alade | 1.5 × 1010 | 2.2 × 109 | kimanta kawai |
| Kare | 1.2 × 1010 | 2.3 × 109 | kimanta kawai |
| Dolphin | 8.3 × 109 | 1.5 × 1010 | zato kawai |
| Ɗan Adam | 8.2 × 109 | 8.6 × 1010 | an auna |
| Inji | FLOPS | Bayani |
|---|---|---|
| wayar salula | 1012 an auna | Wayar zamani ta yanzu. |
| kwamfutar ɗauka | 1013 an auna | Yana tafiyar da samfurin tsarin jijiyoyin ƙudan ’ya’yan itace da sauri fiye da lokaci na gaske. |
| na’urar saurin AI ɗaya | 1015 kimanta kawai | Ɗaya daga cikin na’urorin saurin cibiyoyin bayanai na yau a ƙaramin daidaito. Horar da babban samfurin harshe yana buƙatar dubbansu. |
| babbar kwamfuta mafi girma | 1018 an auna | Aji na exascale. Yana cika gini. |
| kowace kwamfuta a duniya | 1021 kimanta kawai | Sabobi, kwamfutocin gida, wayoyi da na’urorin wasa an haɗa su tare. |
| cibiyar bayanai ta garken Dyson | 2.8 × 1037 kimanta kawai | Kowane watt da Rana ke fitarwa, ana amfani da shi a chips masu mafi kyawun inganci da aka auna (kusan ayyuka 7.4 × 10^10 ga kowane watt). |
| Rana ta chips masu iyakar Landauer | 1.3 × 1047 na littafi | Duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa, a ƙasan zafi na bit ɗaya da aka goge a kowane aiki, a yanayin ɗaki. |
| kwamfuta ta ƙololuwa mai nauyin Duniya | 3.2 × 1075 na littafi | Kowace kilogram ta duniya tana lissafi a iyakar Lloyd. |
| kwakwalwar Jupiter | 1078 na littafi | Katon duniyar iskar gas da aka mai da kwamfuta. |
| kwamfuta ta ƙololuwa mai nauyin Rana | 1.1 × 1081 na littafi | Tauraro da aka mai da kwamfuta. |
| kwamfuta ta ƙololuwa mai nauyin galaxy | 6.5 × 1091 na littafi | Milky Way a matsayin kwamfuta ɗaya. |
| kwamfutar sararin samaniya ɗaya | 8.1 × 10103 kimanta kawai | Kowace kilogram ta abu na yau da kullum a sararin samaniyar da ake iya gani tana lissafi a iyakar Lloyd. Wannan shi ne rufin abu na yau da kullum. Idan an ƙirga dark matter zai ƙaru da kusan ninki shida, amma ba za mu iya amfani da shi ba a zahiri. |
Kwaikwayo da ke wanzuwa
ƙudan ’ya’yan itace ɗaya da aka ɗora · FlyWire ya zana jijiyoyi ~139k a 2024. Yana gudana a kwamfutar ɗauka.1012
babban wasa na kan layi · Gungun sabar da ke riƙe da mutane dubbai kaɗan a lokaci guda a duniya ɗaya ta kama-da-wane da aka raba.1015
samfurin yanayi · Cibiyar bayanai da ke tafiyar da ainihin hasashen yanayi.1017
sararin samaniya irin Illustris · Dubban cores na babbar kwamfuta suna gudana tsawon watanni, suna girma galaxies daga yanayin farawa. Ƙudurin ba shi da laushi har ya kai a bi taurari ɗaiɗai; ana ɗaukar su a ƙididdiga.1015
2026.6 · 2026-10-19
- Bayan bitar waje biyar. Misalan aiki: lissafin yanayi huɗu da aka yi da hannu a wannan shafi, ana duba su da injin a kowane gini. Ba a canja kowace madaidaiciyar lamba ba.
- Kwanakin da za mu iya tafiyar da shi suna farawa da tazararsu (ƙaruwa mai sauri ko jinkiri da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar), sannan shekarar tsakiya ta biyu.
- Makarantu huɗu yanzu suna karkata ga, karkata gāba da ko sun rarrabu, maimakon goyon baya ko ƙin yarda; ana nuna nauyin ɗabi’a a cikakken kashi. Duka hukunci ne, kuma tsohuwar kalmar ta yi da’awar fiye da haka.
- Lissafin da ba a ƙirga ba na kiyaye duniyar da ake nunawa idan an duba ta dace a ƙarƙashin kowane kallo yanzu an faɗa shi kusa da sauran abubuwan da aka bari.
2026.5 · 2026-10-16
- Bayan bita ta waje. Da’awar rashin yiwuwa yanzu tana faɗin sharuɗɗanta: “ba za a taɓa yi da ƙarfin tauraro ɗaya ba” gaskiya ne ga dabarar lissafi ta yau da kullum da ke goge bit a kowane aiki a yanayin ɗaki; lissafi mai juyawa da wurin sanyaya mai sanyi zai rage wannan ƙasa, kuma shafin ba ya ƙididdige su.
- An bayyana iyakar Lloyd a matsayin rufin ayyuka ga abu mai zafi kamar plasma, ba ga jikin dutse ba, kuma nauyin da take bayarwa ga Duniya zarra bayan zarra yana ƙirga ayyuka kawai: adana yanayin wannan duniya yana buƙatar abu da yawa fiye da haka.
- Kwamfutar sararin samaniya ita ce rufin abu na yau da kullum (yanzu an yi mata alamar kimanta kawai); dark matter zai ɗaga shi da kusan ninki shida.
- Kwatancen 1015 FLOPS na’urar saurin AI ɗaya ce a ƙaramin daidaito (a da “rakin GPUs”, an yi masa alamar an auna).
- An yi wa matakin quark alamar zato kawai: babu wata hanyar gargajiya da aka sani da ke bin motsin quark a lokaci na gaske. Matakin entanglement cikakke yana lura cewa yana ƙirga amplitudes a kan mai masaukin gargajiya.
- MD na kowane zarra yana fitar da sinadari maras amsawa kawai; ƙulla ƙulli yana buƙatar hanyoyin quantum da ba a ƙididdige su a wannan mataki ba.
- Lambobin jijiyoyi a tsanin rayuwar ciki waɗanda ba su da auna ta duk kwakwalwa da aka buga (kifi, kwaɗo, dolphin) an yi musu alamar zato kawai, kuma matakin ɗan Adam yana cewa iyaka ce bisa nau’in halitta, ba bisa yawan jijiyoyi ba.
- Dabbobin duniya kusan 4.5 × 1020 ne, galibi nematodes na ƙasa (a da 2.5 × 1019, “kusan duka kwari”). Yana ƙirga dabbobin da aka bari a matsayin ado kuma ba ya canja kowane lissafi.
2026.4 · 2026-10-07
- Ana jera tsanin rayuwar ciki bisa jijiyoyi ga kowane ɗaiɗaiku: bera (7.1 × 107) yanzu yana ƙasa da tsuntsu (109), kuma alade (2.2 × 109) ƙasa da kare (2.3 × 109). Kowane mataki yana riƙe yawan jama’arsa; ƙididdigar “wannan mataki da sama” an sake haɗa su. Hanyoyin haɗin Filin gwaji masu iyaka na 5 zuwa 8 yanzu suna ambaton matakan da aka sake jerawa.
- Saitin maɓalli ba ya ɗaukar alamar amincewa yanzu, domin zaɓi ne. Ainihin kwakwalwa a wajen kwaikwayon ba ta ɗaukar komai ta ma’ana kuma ba a yi mata alamar “an auna” ba yanzu.
- Injunan kwatanta daga garken Dyson zuwa sama yanzu ana lissafa su daga madaidaitan lambobin da ke sama, ba a zagaye su zuwa cikakken ƙarfin goma ba. Rana ta chips masu iyakar Landauer 1.3 × 1047 FLOPS ce (a da 1047) kuma kwamfuta mai nauyin Duniya 3.2 × 1075 (a da 1075), don haka 3.0 × 1050 FLOPS yanzu yana karantuwa “2,200 ×”, ba “3,000 ×” ba, daidai da akwatin ƙarfi da ke kusa.
- Yiwuwar aiwatarwa ba ta ce “ba za a taɓa yi ba, da kimiyyar lissafi da aka sani” ga lissafin da ya wuce layin Rana: lissafi na iya wuce ƙarfin tauraro ɗaya amma har yanzu ya shiga cikin lissafin abu a iyakar Lloyd. Duniya zarra bayan zarra tana buƙatar kusan 2.5 × 1017 kg na irin wannan abu, ba, kamar yadda Ƙirgen lokaci ya ce, kusan duniya ba.
2026.3 · 2026-10-06
- Sabon samfurin hankali, “Ainihin kwakwalwa, a waje”: hankali kwakwalwar halitta ce a ainihin gaskiya, da aka haɗa da kwaikwayon. Jijiyoyinta suna yin lissafinsu da kansu, don haka ba ta ƙara komai a lissafin; duniyar da take ji kaɗai ake lissafawa.
- Saitin Kwakwalwa a Cikin Tulu yanzu yana amfani da shi. A da yana kwaikwayon kwakwalwar kanta a matakin halittar jiki (1022 FLOPS, kusan ninki goma na duk kwamfutocin duniya), wanda ɗora hankali ne, ba tulu ba. Yanzu yana ɗaukar 8.2 × 1015 FLOPS, kusan duka mutanen rubutu da ke kewaye da kwakwalwar.
2026.2 · 2026-10-04
- Yiwuwar aiwatarwa yanzu tana faɗin matakin da lissafi ya wuce, raka’a ɗaya a lokaci: wuce kowace kwamfuta a duniya, wuce duk abin da Rana ke fitarwa a ƙasan Landauer (ƙarfi), wuce kwamfuta mai nauyin Duniya a iyakar Lloyd (nauyi), wuce kwamfutar sararin samaniya. “Ma’aunin tauraro” da “ma’aunin galaxy” sun haɗa biyun kuma an cire su.
- Ana rubuta girman kwamfuta a matsayin ninki na matakin da ke daidai ko ƙasa da lissafin (3.0 × 1050 FLOPS yana karantuwa “3,000 × Rana ta chips masu iyakar Landauer”), ba a zagaye zuwa mafi kusa mataki ba, wanda zai iya ɓoye ninki na 1014.
- Lamba ɗaya da ke nuna yadda chips suke sama da ƙasan Landauer: mafi kyawun inji da aka auna, 1.36 × 10-11 J ga kowane aiki (Green500, Nuwamba 2025), sau kusan Biliyan 5 na ƙasan. Matakin garken Dyson da lissafin rana suna amfani da lamba ɗaya.
- Koma baya mara iyaka yana bin ƙa’ida ɗaya: kwamfutar da aka kwaikwayo ba za ta fi duniyar da take gudana a cikinta lissafi ba, don haka kowane mataki na ciki yana samun kaso (1%) a mafi yawa na lissafin iyayensa. Tsohon allo ya raba sarari da wani ninki na son rai. Ana iya gina jerin mataki bayan mataki a /nesting.
- Kowane lissafi yanzu yana ɗauke da tazara. Kowace shigarwa maras tabbas ana ɗebo ta daga yaɗuwar log-normal da alamarta ta saita (karkacewar ma’auni ɗaya: an auna ±12%, na littafi ±41%, kimanta kawai ×3.2, zato kawai ×10) kuma ana sake gudanar da injin sau 400; Filin gwaji yana nuna kashi na 10 zuwa na 90 kuma yana jera shigarwa bisa nisan da kowacce ita kaɗai take motsa lissafin. Saitin maɓalli zaɓi ne kuma ba shi da yaɗuwa.
- Ana kuma ba da lissafi ta fuskar ɗan Adam: watts a kan mafi kyawun chips da aka auna a kan wutar lantarkin duniya, na’urorin saurin AI na yanzu (kusan ayyuka 1015 a daƙiƙa, kusan $30,000 kowanne), kuɗin wutar lantarki na shekara a $0.10 ga kowace kilowatt-hour, da ma’aunin Kardashev na Sagan. Ingancin chips na yau yanzu madaidaiciyar lamba ɗaya ce a duk shafin (ayyuka 7.4 × 1010 ga kowane watt, a da 7 × 1010 a wurare biyu), wanda ke motsa rufin wutar lantarki na Ƙirgen lokaci da matakin girma 0.02.
2026.1 · 2026-09-28
- An motsa matakin garken Dyson daga 1026 zuwa 1037 FLOPS. Tsohuwar lambar watts ɗin Rana ce, ba abin da waɗannan watts ke saya a 50 GFLOPS ga kowane watt ba.
- An sake samo samfurin hankalin ƙwayoyin halitta daga mataki na 10 na taswirar Sandberg & Bostrom (ya ce mataki na 9, wanda shi ne 1030, ba 1043 ba).
- Ƙasan abu na zarra da ƙwayar zarra ta halitta yanzu suna ɗaukar FLOPs 103 ga kowace raka’a a kowane mataki, daga 102, kuma an yi musu alamar kimanta kawai. Lissafi a waɗannan ƙasa ya ninka sau goma.
- An motsa sararin samaniya irin Illustris daga 1018 zuwa 1015 FLOPS mai ɗorewa.
- Sabon anka da ke faɗa a fili cewa aiki, FLOP da gogewar bit ana ƙirga su a matsayin raka’a ɗaya.
- α_G a kan tsohon allon daidaita-daidaito da aka bayyana daidai: nauyi a kan ħc, ba a kan ƙarfin lantarki ba.
- Chips na gaske suna sama da ƙasan Landauer da kusan ninki biliyan goma, ba miliyan ɗaya ba (2 × 10-11 J ga kowane aiki a kan 2.9 × 10-21 J).
Wannan ba hukunci ba ne kan ko an kwaikwaye mu, kuma ba ya yin hukunci kan abin da kake imani da shi. Ba zai iya gaya maka wane ne na gaske ba. Maɓallin wahala da iyakar rayuwar ciki saituna ne ga mai nunawa na hasashe. Rayuwa mai wahala ba ta gaya maka komai game da mai yin ta. Wannan samfurin lissafi ne na abin hasashe, kuma yana faɗin rashin tabbacinsa.
Ross Allan Dahl ne ke rubutawa da kula da shafin.